宏观压制，镍不锈钢区间震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are experiencing range - bound oscillations due to macro - level constraints. The nickel market is in a state of policy - fundamental game, with the price supported by Indonesian policy on the lower end and restricted by macro and supply - demand patterns on the upper end. The stainless - steel price is mainly influenced by the nickel price, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 23, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 133,100 yuan/ton and closed at 132,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.09% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 463,882 (-73,519) lots, and the open interest was 179,706 (6570) lots [1]. - The nickel market is in a state of policy - fundamental game. Policy - wise, the nickel ore mining quota has decreased from 3.79 billion tons to 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, leading to a tight supply at the ore end and providing long - term support. Fundamentally, the supply output continues to rise, inventories at home and abroad are increasing, and the market supply is sufficient. The demand side has stable support as stainless - steel mills' profits improve and production resumes after the festival, and new - energy vehicle production and sales meet expectations, but it is in the off - season with limited month - on - month improvement. The Middle East situation affects sulfur supply and raises nickel production costs [1]. Nickel Ore and Spot - Multiple factors are driving up the raw material cost of nickel ore, and the bargaining focus is still rising. In the Philippines, the tense Middle East situation has driven up international oil prices, leading to a surge in nickel ore shipping costs. In Indonesia, due to Ramadan, the approval of RKAB quotas for nickel ore is slow, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains strong. The price of wet - process nickel ore on the island is 30 - 32 US dollars/wet ton, and it has risen to 35 - 37 US dollars/wet ton on the outer island. The premium of pyrometallurgical nickel ore has risen to 40 - 45 US dollars/wet ton, and mines still intend to raise the premium next month [2]. - The overall trading atmosphere of refined nickel spot is weak, with abundant spot resources in the market. Traders are eager to sell, and some holders maintain low - premium quotes to raise funds, but actual transactions are insufficient. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remains unchanged at 6,550 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remains unchanged at - 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,632 (942) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 282,792 (-720) tons [2]. Strategy - The Shanghai nickel has shown strong resilience recently, maintaining a wide - range oscillation pattern in a macro - bearish environment, mainly due to the long - term support from the supply constraint at the Indonesian ore end. With obvious long - short differences, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. The strategy is mainly range - bound operations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 23, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,040 yuan/ton and closed at 14,035 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 175,123 (-82,319) lots, and the open interest was 118,436 (-4,171) lots [3]. - The stainless - steel price is mainly influenced by the nickel price. Fundamentally, the total domestic stainless - steel crude steel production in March is expected to reach 3.5364 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The supply pressure is gradually emerging as the resumption of work and production accelerates after the festival. On the demand side, the stainless - steel demand in the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season fails to meet expectations, with only rigid demand replenishment from downstream and light transactions. The market consumption in March is in a slow recovery process, and the recovery speed is slower than in previous years. In April, consumption is expected to continue to pick up, orders will ease, and inventory is unlikely to rise, providing bottom support for the price [3][4]. - Steel mill agents have raised quotes, and with the strong performance of the futures market, the stainless - steel spot price has risen. Driven by the "buy on rising, not on falling" mentality, the inquiry and trading activity of downstream terminals has increased. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 14,300 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 14,300 (+50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 190 to 390 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday remained unchanged at 1,084.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The supply growth expectation on the fundamental side is stronger than the demand side, but there is still cost support. Macro and policy factors are the main drivers of the stainless - steel trend. In the short term, stainless steel will follow the nickel price trend and is expected to maintain an oscillation. The strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [5].