日度策略参考-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The external shocks still exist, and the stock index is expected to continue its weak performance in the short - term. Investors are advised to be cautious and control their positions. However, after a significant market decline, the probability of policy support has increased. Attention should be paid to the domestic factors' support for the stock index this week [1]. - The bond market is oscillating under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, expectations of monetary policy easing, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks [1]. - Due to the tense Middle East situation and rising market risk - aversion sentiment, copper and aluminum prices are under pressure, and zinc and tin prices are affected by the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector. Nickel prices may fluctuate widely, and stainless steel futures are expected to oscillate strongly. Precious metals and platinum - palladium prices are affected by the Middle East situation and may continue to be volatile [1]. - For industrial silicon, there are factors such as supply - side resumption, weak demand, and inventory reduction. For polycrystalline silicon and lithium carbonate, there are issues related to supply and demand and market sentiment [1]. - In the black metal sector, steel products such as rebar and iron ore are in a state of supply - demand balance or weakness, with prices mainly affected by cost support and inventory pressure. Coke and coking coal are affected by the war situation, and their prices may fluctuate [1]. - In the agricultural product sector, cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium - long term with the recovery of demand and the expectation of reduced planting. Sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations, with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern. Corn, soybean meal, and other products are affected by supply - demand and policy factors [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, most products are affected by the Middle East situation, including oil, fuel oil, asphalt, plastics, and rubber. Some products are facing supply shortages, and others are affected by cost and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - Stock Index: Expected to continue weak in the short - term, with increased probability of policy support after a sharp decline. Focus on domestic factors' support this week [1]. - Bonds: Oscillating under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, monetary policy expectations, and profit - taking [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: At risk of decline due to the tense Middle East situation and rising risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - Aluminum: Pressured down by the Middle East situation and market sentiment, while alumina may be affected by Guinea's policy but the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [1]. - Zinc and Tin: Follow the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector and are advised to wait and see due to the high uncertainty of the Middle East situation [1]. - Nickel: May fluctuate widely, affected by the supply situation in Indonesia and macro - sentiment. Short - term operation is recommended, focusing on low - buying opportunities [1]. - Stainless Steel: The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to demand acceptance. Short - term operation and low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: Prices rebounded after Trump's remarks, but the Middle East situation is still uncertain, and the market may be disturbed [1]. - Platinum - Palladium: May stabilize and stop falling due to Trump's remarks, but the Middle East situation may still cause fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Facing supply - side resumption, weak demand, and inventory reduction [1]. - Polycrystalline Silicon and Lithium Carbonate: Affected by supply - demand and market sentiment factors such as storage demand, power demand, and battery exports [1]. Black Metals - Rebar: In a state of supply - demand balance and inventory reduction, with price driven by cost support. It is treated as an oscillating market [1]. - Iron Ore: Supply - demand is weak in the short - term, and the price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and cost support [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Affected by the war situation, with a possible short - term sharp rise in coking coal, but the risk is high. Attention should be paid to the war development and timely exit from long positions [1]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season. Domestically, the price is expected to rise in the medium - long term with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1]. - Sugar: Globally, there is a structural surplus in the 2025/26 season. Domestically, the supply is loose, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn: The price is supported by tight supply of surplus grain in the Northeast and strong downstream starch. Policy - induced callbacks are expected to be limited [1]. - Soybean Meal: Still at a low historical level, sensitive to positive news. The medium - long - term upward drive depends on planting - season weather. It is recommended to wait for callbacks to arrange long positions in far - month contracts [1]. - Paper Pulp: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [1]. - Log: The "strong expectation" logic may be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term due to oil price uncertainty [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by geopolitical factors, the expectation is strong, and some refineries in Northeast Asia are facing supply shortages [1]. - Fuel Oil: Affected by the Middle East situation, with concerns about supply interruption and a positive market sentiment [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by the cost of crude oil, but the impact is relatively weak among energy products [1]. - BR Rubber: The price has risen significantly and may continue to rise due to factors such as raw material shortages, cost support, and inventory reduction expectations [1]. - PTA: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the supply - side risk is significant, and the polyester industry chain may face production decline in April [1]. - Naphtha and Ethylene Glycol: Affected by the Middle East situation, there is a shortage of supply, and the production of related devices has decreased [1]. - Styrene: Facing supply shortages of ethylene and benzene, and non - integrated producers' profits are seriously inverted [1]. - Urea: The upward space is limited by weak domestic demand, and there is support from cost and anti - inversion [1]. - Methanol: Affected by the Iranian situation, but the domestic supply is high and the inventory is at a historical high [1]. - PVC: The future expectation is optimistic due to capacity reduction and geopolitical factors, but the current market sentiment has cooled [1]. - LPG: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price is strong, but the demand is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the internal and external markets [1]. - Shipping (Container Shipping on European Routes): Affected by the war situation, the market is excited, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1].