对二甲苯：短期震荡市，中期仍偏强，PTA，短期震荡市，中期仍偏强，MEG，供应偏紧，中期趋势偏强

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: In the short - term, it is a volatile market. After an overnight sharp decline in oil prices, PX followed suit, but the medium - term trend remains strong. It's recommended to buy on dips. The internal - external price difference arbitrage window is partially open, and the PXN and PX - MX Korea have declined. There are changes in supply with some PX plants under maintenance and restart [2][7]. - PTA: In the short - term, it is a volatile market, and in the medium - term, the trend is strong. Do not chase the high price. It's advisable to buy on dips. There is a short - term pressure due to production cuts at some plants and difficulties in spot sales, but the medium - term cost support is strong [2][7]. - MEG: Supply is tight, and the medium - term trend is strong. The import has significantly shrunk, and the port inventory has decreased. The strategy suggests trading in the 4500 - 6000 range and conducting a 5 - 9 month spread positive arbitrage [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Futures Market - Prices and Fluctuations: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous day were 10390, 7134, 5574, 8680, and 834.6 respectively, with daily increases of 708, 484, 221, 432, and 61, and daily increase rates of 7.31%, 7.28%, 4.13%, 5.24%, and 7.89% respectively [4]. - Month - spread: The previous day's closing prices of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 month - spreads were 410, 188, 150, - 166, and 5.2 respectively, with changes of - 28, - 10, - 44, 22, and 2.7 compared to the day before [4]. Spot Market - Prices: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, Naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 1301.67 dollars/ton, 6910 yuan/ton, 5470 yuan/ton, 1189.5 dollars/ton, and 110.05 dollars/barrel respectively. Compared with the day before, they changed by 95, 360, 390, 49, and - 6.89 respectively [4]. - Processing Fees: The previous day's spot processing fees of PX - Naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai crude oil were 65.17, 278.35, 84.3, 844.62, and - 4.34 respectively, with changes of - 38, - 5.95, 213.88, 18.77, and 0 compared to the day before [4]. Fundamental Data of PX, PTA, MEG - PX: On March 23, the PX price rose, with two May Asian spot transactions at 1310. The end - of - session physical May had a buy - in at 1305, and June was under negotiation at 1278/1306. The PX valuation on March 23 was 1302 dollars/ton, up 81 dollars from last Friday [5]. - PTA: Due to upstream raw material supply issues, the 7.2 - million - ton PTA plant of Yisheng New Materials plans to reduce its load by 30% on April 1. Other Yisheng plants will adjust their operating rates according to raw material availability [5]. - MEG: A 185,000 - ton/year MEG plant in South Korea plans to shut down this weekend, and its current load is only around 50% [5]. - Polyester: On March 23, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang partially recovered, with the average sales estimated at around 90% by 4 pm. The sales rates of some direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 61% by around 3 pm [5][6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene and PTA is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend. The trend intensity of MEG is 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Views and Suggestions - PX: After the overnight sharp decline in oil prices, PX followed the downward trend. In the medium - term, the trend remains strong. It's recommended to buy on dips. The internal - external price difference arbitrage window is partially open, with the 04 contract's domestic price 50 yuan/ton higher than the foreign price and the 05 contract's domestic valuation 300 yuan/ton higher. The overall valuation of the 04 contract has returned to normal. The PXN has dropped to 81 dollars, and PX - MX Korea has dropped to 90 dollars. In terms of supply and demand, a 2 - million - ton PX plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical is under maintenance recently, and a 1.6 - million - ton PX plant in Ningbo Daxie has restarted. The 7.2 - million - ton PTA plant of Yisheng New Materials has reduced its load by 30% due to raw material shortages [7]. - PTA: Do not chase the high price. In the medium - term, the trend is strong. It's advisable to buy on dips. The 7.2 - million - ton PTA plant of Yisheng New Materials has reduced its load by 30% due to raw material shortages. Three major polyester filament manufacturers plan further maintenance, which is expected to affect polyester production by 2.8%. Therefore, the spot sales of PTA are relatively difficult, the basis remains low, and the warehouse receipts increase, creating short - term pressure. However, in the medium - term, the cost support from crude oil is strong, and the probability of industrial chain production cuts in the future is still high, so it's not advisable to be bearish. It's recommended to conduct a month - spread positive arbitrage and hold a long PX and short PTA position [7]. - MEG: The import has significantly shrunk, and the port inventory has decreased. The unilateral trend is still strong. It's recommended to conduct a 5 - 9 month - spread positive arbitrage. On the supply side, many naphtha cracking units have reduced their loads, and the domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has dropped from 80% to 66%. Many ethylene glycol plants in Kuwait and Iran overseas have shut down, and there are difficulties in passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Mandeb. The import volume will accelerate its decline this week. On the demand side, three major polyester filament manufacturers plan to cut production by 8%, which is expected to affect polyester production by 2.8%, increasing the short - term sales difficulty of ethylene glycol. In terms of valuation, the profits of multiple processes such as coal - based and oil - based are differentiated. The strategy suggests trading in the 4500 - 6000 range and conducting a 5 - 9 month - spread positive arbitrage [8].