国内豆系遇调整

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are experiencing adjustments. The soybean No. 1 main contract 2605 and the soybean meal main contract 2605 have continued to decline this week. The spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal are relatively stable, and the basis has strengthened [5]. - The inventory of domestic soybeans continues to decline, and there is no soybean auction for the time being. The arrival of soybeans at oil mills and the inventory of port soybeans have both decreased. The U.S. soybeans have stabilized, and the expected increase in the planting area of new U.S. soybean crops needs attention [5][6]. - The operating rate of oil mills has increased, and the inventory of soybean meal has increased month - on - month. The feed demand is relatively strong, but the long - term capacity reduction is unfavorable [6][7]. - In the future, the sales of domestic soybeans are slow at high prices, and the remaining grain continues to decline. The market price is still strong, and it is expected that the trend of soybean No. 1 will be strong, with short - term adjustments due to energy fluctuations. The arrival of domestic soybeans has decreased, there is no auction, the operation of oil mills has increased, and the inventory of soybean meal has increased. The sentiment has declined, and soybean meal has adjusted [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - The soybean No. 1 main contract 2605 continued to decline and adjust this week, with a decline of more than 2% at the end of today's session. The spot price is stable, and the basis has strengthened, with the futures price at a discount. The soybean meal main contract 2605 also continued to decline and adjust, falling below 3000 points again. The spot price of soybean meal is relatively stable, and the basis has strengthened, with the futures price discount widening [5]. Supply - side Situation - Domestic Soybean Inventory: As of March 20, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang, Anhui, Henan, and Shandong has decreased month - on - month, but the remaining grain ratio in the whole country is higher than that of the same period last year. There is no state - reserve soybean auction for the time being [5]. - Soybean Arrival and Port Inventory: The arrival of soybeans at oil mills and the inventory of port soybeans have both decreased. As of March 20, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 1449500 tons, and the port soybean inventory was 5131000 tons, both decreasing month - on - month [5]. - U.S. Soybeans: The U.S. - Iran conflict continues, but the U.S. may conduct negotiations. The expected increase in the planting area of new U.S. soybean crops needs attention, with the previous forecast of 85 million acres (a year - on - year increase of 4.7%) [6]. Demand - side Situation - Oil Mill Operation and Soybean Meal Inventory: As of March 20, the operating rate of oil mills was 54.81%, increasing month - on - month. The soybean inventory of oil mills was 5116000 tons, decreasing month - on - month. The soybean meal output was 1572000 tons, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 670500 tons, increasing month - on - month, and the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal were 3520100 tons, decreasing month - on - month. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 8.82 days, increasing month - on - month [6]. - Feed Demand: The livestock and poultry inventory is still high, which supports the feed demand. However, due to the intensified losses, the capacity may continue to be reduced, which is unfavorable for the long - term growth of feed demand [7].