瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic supply and demand of caustic soda have improved, the high inventory of factories has been reduced, and the spot price is supported. The 05 contract basis is still at a low level, waiting for further realization of positive factors. In the context of the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the launch of new domestic alumina production capacity, the expectation of improved supply and demand in the future cannot be falsified for the time being. However, under the low basis level, the unexpected easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation and the lower - than - expected exports will also bring callback risks. In summary, the short - term price of SH2605 is still dominated by Middle East geopolitical news and should be treated with oscillations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2557 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77 yuan; the futures holding volume is 186,704 lots, a decrease of 21,223 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is 5430 lots, an increase of 2425 lots; the futures trading volume is 652,492 lots, an increase of 89,957 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2579 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2557 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 708 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 885 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The converted 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2269 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan; the basis is - 288 yuan/ton, an increase of 133 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 227.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,180 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 2730 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [3] 3.6 Industry News - From March 13th to 19th, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. From March 14th to 20th, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.24% month - on - month to 82.48%; from March 13th to 19th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 1.17% month - on - month to 88.97%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 2.42% month - on - month to 52.57%. As of March 19th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 500,700 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 6.28% and a year - on - year increase of 20.22%. From March 13th to 19th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 103 yuan/ton [3]