瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to the influence of short - term corporate malfunctions, urea production is expected to continue to decrease. Agricultural demand has gradually weakened, and policies for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices have cooled the market trading sentiment. However, the high - nitrogen fertilizer production of compound fertilizer plants has increased, and the short - term compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain a steady and slightly increasing trend. The overall inventory of urea may continue to decline, and the UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1850 - 1920 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1864 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is - 59 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 204,042 lots, a decrease of 16,190 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 41,233; the exchange warehouse receipts are 8,712 lots, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui are 1870, 1860, 1870, and 1870 yuan/ton respectively, with Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui remaining unchanged and Jiangsu increasing by 10 yuan/ton. The main contract basis is - 14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 595 US dollars/ton, and FOB China's main port is 712.5 US dollars/ton, both unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 16.7 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons compared with the previous week; enterprise inventory is 80.89 tons, a decrease of 14.87 tons compared with the previous week. The urea enterprise operating rate is 92.19%, a decrease of 1.1%; the daily urea output is 217,100 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons. Urea exports are 28 tons, a decrease of 32 tons; the monthly output of urea is 6,289,610 tons, an increase of 271,170 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 49.97%, an increase of 4.41%; the melamine operating rate is 59.31%, an increase of 5.96%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 1,012 yuan/ton, an increase of 726 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 517.99 tons, an increase of 18.45 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32,600 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of March 18, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 80.89 tons, a decrease of 14.87 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 15.53%. As of March 19, the port inventory was 16.7 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons, a decrease of 11.64%. As of March 19, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 151.94 tons, a decrease of 1.82 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 1.18%, and the capacity utilization rate was 92.19%, a decrease of 1.10% [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]