铁合金日报-20260324

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: March 24, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [2] - Futures practice certificate number: F03134259 [2] - Investment consulting certificate number: Z0021009 [2] - Contact information: zhoutao_qh1@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF main contract: closing price 6100, daily change -20, weekly change 172, trading volume 284,622, daily change -39,161, open interest 181,930, daily change -3,897 [3] - SM main contract: closing price 6480, daily change -76, weekly change 240, trading volume 897,615, daily change 229,414, open interest 406,591, daily change 1,558 [3] Spot - Silicon iron: 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai had a spot price of 5750, with daily changes of 80, 100, and 100 respectively, and weekly changes of 100, 150, and 170 respectively. In Jiangsu and Tianjin, the spot prices were 6200 and 6100, with weekly changes of 150 and 50 respectively [3] - Manganese silicon: The spot price of silicon manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi was 6200, 6150, and 6350 respectively, with daily changes of 50 and weekly changes of 270, 240, and 300 respectively. In Jiangsu and Tianjin, the spot prices were 6400 and 6300, with weekly changes of 300 [3] Basis/Spread - Silicon iron: The basis of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai relative to the main contract was -350, with daily changes of 100, 120, and 120 respectively, and weekly changes of -72, -22, and -2 respectively. The spread between Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia was 450, with a daily change of -80 and a weekly change of 50. The SF - SM spread was -380, with a daily change of 56 and a weekly change of -68 [3] - Manganese silicon: The basis of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi relative to the main contract was -280, -330, and -130 respectively, with daily changes of 126 and weekly changes of 30, 0, and 60 respectively. The spread between Guangxi and Inner Mongolia was 150, with a weekly change of 30 [3] Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): The prices of Australian lumps, South African semi - carbonates, and Gabonese lumps were 47.5, 44, and 48 respectively, with daily changes of 2.5, 1.5, and 1.5 respectively, and weekly changes of 3.7, 4, and 3.5 respectively [3] - Blue charcoal small materials: The prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were 705, 805, and 695 respectively, with no daily or weekly changes [3] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - On March 24, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. The silicon iron main contract closed at 6100, down 0.33%, with open interest decreasing by 3,897 lots. The manganese silicon main contract closed at 6480, down 1.16%, with open interest increasing by 1,558 lots [5] - Silicon iron: On the 24th, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend, with some regional spot prices rising by 80 - 100 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the recent price recovery has led to the restoration of manufacturers' profits, and the output of sample enterprises has continued to increase, with the resumption speed exceeding the seasonal average. On the demand side, Steel Union data shows that the steel inventory has reached an inflection point, and the apparent demand and output of steel continue to rise, which still drives the demand for raw materials. On the cost side, the electricity price is stable with a slight upward trend. Silicon iron is still in a positive feedback loop of demand and cost in the short term, but as an energy - intensive variety, it is greatly affected by large fluctuations in energy prices such as crude oil and coal. Long positions need to pay attention to position control [5] - Manganese silicon: On the 24th, the manganese ore spot prices rose overall, with each spot in Tianjin Port rising by 1.5 - 2.5 yuan/ton - degree. The manganese silicon spot price was stable with a slight upward trend, with some regional prices rising by 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the output within the sample has decreased slightly recently, and some industry associations have called for self - discipline in production cuts, but the actual implementation needs to be monitored under the background of profit restoration. On the demand side, the steel inventory has reached an inflection point, and the apparent demand and output of steel continue to rise, which still drives the demand for raw materials. On the cost side, the sharp rise in crude oil has led to an increase in freight rates. Currently, Hurricane Narelle has not caused serious damage to South32's shipping infrastructure, and the actual impact on the subsequent shipments of Australian manganese ore needs to be monitored [6] - Unilateral: Driven by energy costs, it is still in a positive feedback loop of demand and cost, and the price fluctuates with an upward trend; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7] Important Information - On the 24th, the semi - carbonate Mn36.5% at Tianjin Port was traded at 44.2 yuan/ton - degree, the Gabonese lump Mn46% was quoted at 48 yuan/ton - degree, and the semi - carbonate powder Mn34.48% was quoted at 39 yuan/ton - degree [8] - According to research by Ferroalloy Online, Tropical Cyclone "Narelle" has weakened to a tropical depression and has passed through Groote Eylandt. It has not caused large - scale damage to the mining infrastructure. Currently, some employees of South32 are preparing to return to work [8] Group 4: Relevant Attachments - The report includes multiple figures, such as the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between the main contracts of SF and SM, the monthly spread of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the spot price of silicon manganese, the electricity price of ferroalloy, and the cost and profit of silicon iron and manganese silicon [17][19]