橡胶：橡胶轮胎产业调研报告

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In March, the tire sales season arrives. With rising crude oil prices, downstream tire dealers are actively stocking up. However, there are concerns that the good sales in March may over - consume future demand, leading to a possible decline in April sales. [1][9] - The Middle - East geopolitical conflict may initially impede tire shipments, but if customers accept price increases, shipments may gradually resume. The conflict is expected to last until around mid - to late April, and there is a high probability of reduced production rates due to short - term decreased demand and rising raw material prices. [2][14] - Facing the continuous rise in synthetic rubber prices, tire companies are considering measures such as raising tire prices, adjusting production formulas, and reducing production if losses occur. [2][15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Enterprise Profiles - Tire manufacturer A: A global top 50 tire company with an annual production capacity of 8 million sets of all - steel radial tires and 30 million semi - steel tires. The current semi - steel and all - steel tire production rates are around 85%. There are expectations of production cuts from late March to early April. [4] - Tire manufacturer B: Specializes in high - performance all - steel and semi - steel radial tires and rubber conveyors. The annual production capacity of all - steel radial tires is 1.8 million sets, and that of semi - steel radial tires is 12 million sets. After the Spring Festival, production has been running well, with both production lines almost at full capacity. [5] - Tire manufacturer C: Uses advanced production technology to produce all - steel radial tires, with a production capacity of 2.4 million sets. After the Spring Festival, production quickly recovered to full capacity. In 2025, tire production and sales increased by about 10% compared to 2024. [5] - Tire manufacturer D: Has an annual all - steel tire production capacity of 2.2 million sets and a semi - steel tire production capacity of 12 million sets. Currently, the all - steel tire production is at full capacity, with smooth shipments and a 20 - day product inventory. The production capacity is expected to increase from 2.2 million sets to 2.6 - 2.8 million sets. [6] - Tire manufacturer E: Has two all - steel tire factories in China and one all - steel and one semi - steel tire factory in Vietnam. The total all - steel tire production capacity is about 11 million sets per year, planned to increase to 12 million sets. The semi - steel tire production capacity in the Vietnam factory is about 4 million sets per day. [6] - Tire dealer A: Specializes in all - steel tire wholesale, with a peak monthly sales volume of about 10,000 tires. It currently has an inventory of six to seven thousand tires. This month, shipments are fast, but next month, shipment pressure is expected to be high. [7] - Qingdao Bonded Area Warehouse B: Has a warehouse area of over 100,000 square meters, mainly storing mixed rubber, plastics, pulp, and agricultural products. The normal rubber inventory is about 100,000 tons. There are delivery warehouses for No. 20 rubber NR and synthetic BR. [7] - Qingdao Bonded Area Warehouse C: The warehouse park covers an area of 175,000 square meters with a total storage capacity of 240,000 tons. It has multiple functions including bonded, general trade, and futures delivery. The inventory includes various types of rubber. [8] 3.2 Current Production and Sales of Tire Companies - In March, due to rising crude oil prices, downstream tire dealers are actively stocking up. Except for shipments to the Middle - East, tire companies have had good sales since March. However, there are concerns about over - consuming future demand, and sales may decline in April. Currently, most tire companies have high production rates, over 80%, and some are at full capacity, with plans to further increase production this year. [1][9] 3.3 Current Spot Inventory of Rubber and Tires - Tire companies' rubber inventory levels vary, with some participating in futures hedging and some not. Synthetic rubber suppliers have defaulted due to rapid price increases. Tire companies' product inventory is lower than last year. In the first half of March, downstream purchases were concentrated, and tire manufacturers accelerated shipments. Qingdao Port's rubber inventory is unlikely to decrease significantly in March. Even if there is a decrease, it will be short - term. The warehouse is almost full, and while concentrated pick - ups by tire factories may lead to inventory reduction, the expected incoming goods are still substantial. Inventory reduction may occur in the second quarter. [2][12] 3.4 Demand and Consumption of Tires by New - Energy Vehicles - The proportion of natural rubber used in new - energy vehicle tires increases. For semi - steel tires of pure - electric new - energy vehicles, the use of natural rubber increases by 6% - 7%, and for all - steel tires, it increases by 1% - 3%. New - energy vehicle tires wear 20% - 30% faster than fuel - powered vehicle tires, and the proportion of semi - steel tires is increasing. The unit price of new - energy vehicle tires is more than 15% higher than that of fuel - powered vehicle tires. New - energy commercial vehicles have great growth potential, mainly for short - distance transportation. [13] 3.5 Impact of the Middle - East Situation on Tire Sales in the Middle - East - If the Middle - East geopolitical conflict continues, tire shipments will initially be blocked. If customers accept price increases, shipments will gradually resume. The conflict is expected to last until around mid - to late April. In the short term, tire demand in the Middle - East will decrease, and there is a high probability of reduced production rates due to rising raw material prices. [2][14] 3.6 Countermeasures of Tire Companies Against Rising Raw Material Prices - Tire companies are considering the following countermeasures: passing on costs to downstream by raising tire prices, adjusting the tire production formula to reduce the proportion of expensive raw materials, and reducing production and production rates if losses occur. [2][15] 3.7 Industry Structure and Market Characteristics - The tire industry in China has a low concentration but is in the process of accelerating concentration. It shows the characteristics of a "large industry with small enterprises," with a competitive market. The top 10 tire companies account for less than half of the market share. Head - tier companies have a complete product line, scale effects, and are building overseas factories, while small and medium - sized companies face problems such as product homogenization, price competition, and high environmental and production costs. [16]