瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, precious metals will continue to play between geopolitical risks, inflation stickiness, and stagflation expectations. Inflation expectations, hawkish policies of major central banks, high oil prices, and a strong US dollar may limit the rebound. If the global economic slowdown is verified later, stagflation trading may support gold and silver. In the long - term, the logic of central bank gold purchases and supply constraints remains, and precious metals still have allocation value. It is expected to digest the gains through fluctuations in the short - term. Technically, the RSI and KD indicators of London gold and silver are in the oversold range, and the 30 - minute MACD golden cross indicates short - term rebound momentum. Short - term operations should be cautious, and long - term funds can consider buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 977.28 yuan/gram, up 37.3 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 17,085 yuan/kilogram, up 1,674 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 54,345 lots, down 8,419 lots; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract was 52,442 lots, down 3,386 lots [2]. - Volumes: The trading volume of the Shanghai gold main contract was 282,408 lots, down 104,014 lots; the trading volume of the Shanghai silver main contract was 1,247,893 lots, down 11,431 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold was 106,743 kilograms, down 3 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver was 365,923 kilograms, up 1,374 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 979.56 yuan, up 54.91 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 16,608 yuan, down 102 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 2.28 yuan/gram, up 17.63 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 477 yuan/gram, down 1,776 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - ETF Holdings: The SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1,052.70 tons, down 4.29 tons; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,513.67 tons, up 264.76 tons [2]. - CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 159,869 contracts, down 3,263 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC was 21,881 contracts, down 2,697 contracts [2]. - Supply: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - Demand: The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. - Other Indicators: The US dollar index was 99.12, down 0.40; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.01, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The VIX volatility index was 26.15, down 0.63; the CBOE gold volatility index was 43.36, up 8.11 [2]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.47, up 0.05; the gold - silver ratio was 66.43, up 3.39 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump said the US and Iran had "strong" talks and formed the main points of an agreement, suspending attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days. But Iran has repeatedly denied having talks with the US [2]. - A senior Iranian official said Trump had no right to set conditions or deadlines for negotiations. The two sides have exchanged information through Egypt and Turkey, but the US has not accepted Iran's two core conditions [2]. - Goldman Sachs said the probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 30%, 5 percentage points higher than the previous forecast [2]. - Fed Governor Milan believes it is too early to judge the impact of oil prices on the US economy. He thinks the labor market is weak and advocates further interest rate cuts [2]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said inflation is the main risk to the US economy. He does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates, but if the Iran conflict is resolved quickly, there may be interest rate cuts later this year [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - March 24, 21:45: US March S&P Global PMI preliminary value [2] - March 24, 22:00: US February new home sales annualized total [2] - March 24, 22:00: US March Richmond Fed manufacturing index [2] - March 25, 20:30: US February durable goods orders monthly rate [2] - March 26, 20:30: US Q4 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value [2] - March 26, 20:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ended March 21 [2] - March 27, 20:30: US February core PCE price index annual/ monthly rate [2] - March 27, 20:30: US February personal spending monthly rate [2] - March 27, 22:00: US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [2]