瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report On Tuesday, the I2605 contract fluctuated with a stronger bias. Macroeconomically, the global financial market was greatly shaken by Trump's remarks on the US - Iran negotiations. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment and arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased this period, domestic port inventories declined, blast furnace operating rates and hot metal production increased, and the expected increase in demand still supported iron ore prices, but the chaotic international situation affected market sentiment. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis. The reference view is to expect a fluctuating and bullish trend, and attention should be paid to risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 824.00 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan; the position volume was 445,891 hands, up 3,958 hands [2]. - The price difference between the I 5 - 9 contracts was 33.5 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 19,700 hands, up 3,647 hands [2]. - The warehouse receipts of the I Dalian Commodity Exchange were 3,200.00 hands, down 200.00 hands [2]. - The quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 107.85 US dollars/ton, down 0.38 US dollars [2]. Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 854 yuan/dry ton, unchanged; the price of 60.5% Macfarlane powder ore at Qingdao Port was 837 yuan/dry ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of 56.5% Super Special powder ore at Jingtang Port was 756 yuan/dry ton, unchanged; the basis of the I main contract (Macfarlane dry ton - main contract) was 13 yuan, down 5 yuan [2]. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 109.45 US dollars/ton, down 0.10 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Macfarlane powder ore at Qingdao Port was 3.14, down 0.04 [2]. - The estimated import cost was 868 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,144.30 tons, up 95.50 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,383.10 tons, up 66.10 tons [2]. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 17,814.18 tons, down 133.14 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,034.06 tons, up 104.96 tons [2]. - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 9,764.00 tons, down 1,475.00 tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 19.00 days, down 2 days [2]. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 40.85 tons, up 1.04 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 64.29%, up 1.80% [2]. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.13 tons, up 15.45 tons; the BDI index was 2,037.00, down 19.00 [2]. - The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 30.55 US dollars/ton, down 0.10 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 11.65 US dollars/ton, down 0.06 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 79.80%, up 1.44%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 85.55%, up 2.65% [2]. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 6,818 tons, down 169 tons [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 12.47%, down 0.75%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 15.26%, down 0.98% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 21.81%, up 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 22.73%, up 1.09% [2]. Industry News - From March 16th to March 22nd, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,144.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 95.5 tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,559.4 tons, with an increase of 95.0 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1,995.7 tons, an increase of 120.4 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,634.8 tons, an increase of 47.6 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 563.8 tons, a decrease of 25.4 tons [2]. - From March 16th to March 22nd, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,383.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 66.1 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,271.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.6 tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,050.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 179.8 tons [2].