瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20260324

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European route) declined collectively. The main contract EC2604 fell 5.4%, and the far - month contracts fell between 2 - 7%. The latest SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index was 1693.26, up 136.77 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.8% [1]. - The geopolitical situation has shown signs of deterioration, but the detour expectation is gradually being realized. The fundamental pattern of the shipping industry remains unchanged, and the upward space in March and April is limited. It is difficult for shipping companies' price increase announcements to be implemented. The main logic is supported by news. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track shipping company quotes, cargo volume data, and the persistence of the US - Iran conflict and the progress of the subsequent Iranian regime transition [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1898.900, down 108.3; EC second - main contract closing price: 2439.2, down 158.6 [1]. - EC2604 - EC2606 spread: - 540.30, up 195.20; EC2604 - EC2608 spread: - 511.90, up 94.70 [1]. - EC contract basis: - 205.64, up 58.50 [1]. - Futures positions (lots): 15267, EC main contract open interest decreased by 2429 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European route) (weekly): 1693.26, up 136.77; SCFIS (US West route) (weekly): 1024.11, down 85.00 [1]. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1706.95, down 3.40; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged [1]. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1120.61, up 48.45; CCFI (European route) (weekly): 1463.75, up 18.88 [1]. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2056.00, down 19.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1904.00, down 16.00 [1]. - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 0.00, unchanged; average charter price (Cape - size ship): 24559.00, up 327.00 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation is in a state of uncertainty. Trump said the US and Iran had "strong" talks and formed the main points of an agreement, and would suspend attacking Iranian energy facilities for 5 days. However, Iran has repeatedly denied having talks with the US [1]. - A senior Iranian official said Trump has no right to set conditions or deadlines for the negotiation. Iran and the US have exchanged information through Egypt and Turkey to ease tensions, but the US has not accepted Iran's two core conditions [1]. - Goldman Sachs said that due to the soaring oil and gas prices, the probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 30%, 5 percentage points higher than the previous estimate [1]. 3.4 Key Events to Watch - UK February CPI monthly rate at 15:00 on March 25 [1]. - UK February retail price index monthly rate at 15:00 on March 25 [1]. - Germany March IFO business climate index at 17:00 on March 25 [1]. - US February import price index monthly rate at 20:30 on March 25 [1].