瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - Alumina: The alumina market is expected to be in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand, with positive industry consumption expectations. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand, with a slight increase in industrial inventory and positive industry expectations. The option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: The cast aluminum alloy market is likely to be in a stage of increasing supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Price: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 23,625 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,014 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 3,225.50 US dollars/ton, up 33.50 US dollars; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,585 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. - Spread: The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum was - 105 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; that of alumina was - 39 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; that of cast aluminum alloy was - 115 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. - Position: The position of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 261,158 hands, down 5,633 hands; that of the alumina main contract was 231,479 hands, down 15,331 hands; that of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 4,053 hands, down 521 hands [2]. - Inventory: LME aluminum canceled warrants were 154,625 tons, unchanged; LME aluminum inventory was 427,675 tons, down 2,000 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventory on the SHFE was 452,044 tons, up 35,619 tons; cast aluminum alloy inventory on the SHFE was 53,690 tons, down 9,041 tons [2]. - Other indicators: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was - 36,054 hands, down 7,332 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.32, down 0.05; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy on the SHFE were 42,944 tons, down 2,047 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Price: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 23,470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country was 24,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum price was 23,430 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,815 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 155 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 284 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan [2]. - Premium and discount: The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium and discount was - 140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium and discount was 30.63 US dollars/ton, down 6.95 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and utilization rate: Alumina production was 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 83.00%, down 1.00%; the alumina开工率 was 82.10%, down 0.39% [2]. - Supply and demand: The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina was 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons [2]. - Import and export: The export volume of alumina was 15.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons; the import volume of alumina was 18.10 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 136,323.65 tons, down 56,401.89 tons; the export volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 55.23 tons, up 33.81 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Production and capacity: The production of primary aluminum was 201,491.17 tons, up 12,566.45 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum was 10,039.89 tons, down 3,249.90 tons; the total capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,540.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of aluminum products was 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 27.08 million tons, down 39.41 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 182.50 million tons, unchanged [2]. - Export: The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 43.00 million tons, down 11.00 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.33 million tons, down 1.09 million tons [2]. - Operating rate: The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum was 98.93%, up 0.04% [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Real estate: The national real estate climate index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2]. - Automobile: The automobile production was 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 24.08%, down 0.57%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 31.82%, down 0.04%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21.36%, down 0.0027 [2]. - Ratio: The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.90, up 0.1753 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Geopolitical: The US - Iran negotiation is in a deadlock. The US President Trump said that the US and Iran had a "strong" dialogue and formed the main points of an agreement, but Iran denied it [2]. - Domestic policy: President Xi Jinping inspected Xiongan New Area and emphasized its function positioning; the "upgraded" China - EU export control dialogue mechanism held its second meeting; the National Data Bureau will promote the power - computing synergy project; State Power Investment plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, with a 17% year - on - year increase [2]. - Overseas policy: The US Vice - President Vance discussed the Iran negotiation with the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu; the Fed's Goolsbee said that inflation is the primary risk, not excluding the possibility of raising interest rates, and still retaining the space for interest rate cuts this year [2].