瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects Shanghai zinc to stabilize and adjust, and suggests paying attention to the range of 22,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,975 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 175 yuan/ton; the 05 - 06 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,103 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 47 US dollars/ton; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 185,428 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,547 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 1,772 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 287 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, with no change [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 152,266 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,918 tons; the LME inventory is 117,175 tons, with a day - on - day decrease of 500 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,860 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 190 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 630 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 20.79 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.82 US dollars/ton [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 19,610 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Balance - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is 29,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 55,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 9,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 84,300 tons [3]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global zinc mine output of ILZSG is 1.0104 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 59,600 tons; the domestic refined zinc output is 675,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 21,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 414,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 180,800 tons; the refined zinc import volume is 4,518.01 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 19,594.63 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 3,866.38 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,847.88 tons [3]. 3.5 Social Inventory - The zinc social inventory is 236,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,700 tons [3]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The output of galvanized sheets is 2.4 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.38 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons [3]. - The new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 53.1326 million square meters; the housing completion area is 63.2042 million square meters, with a month - on - month decrease of 540.2771 million square meters [3]. - The automobile output is 3.4115 million vehicles, with a month - on - month decrease of 107,500 vehicles; the air - conditioner output is 21.6289 million units, with a month - on - month increase of 6.6029 million units [3]. 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option of zinc is 19.43%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.25%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option of zinc is 19.43%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.25% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 23.91%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 20.39%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% [3]. 3.8 Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation is in a stalemate. Trump said the US and Iran had a "strong" dialogue and formed the main points of an agreement, and would suspend attacking its energy facilities for 5 days. But Iran has repeatedly denied having a dialogue with the US [3]. - State Power Investment Corporation plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 17%. In the first quarter, it will complete an investment of 23 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 35% [3]. - US Vice - President Vance talked with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu about the efforts to start negotiations with Iran and the elements of a potential agreement to end the war with Iran [3]. - Fed's Goolsbee said inflation is the primary risk, not ruling out the possibility of raising interest rates, and still retaining the space for rate cuts this year. Milan said if there are second - round effects of inflation and wage increases, interest rates may need to be raised. Daly said too much forward - looking guidance would create a false sense of certainty [3].