农产品日报：苹果日报-20260324

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an apple daily report in the agricultural product research report on March 24, 2024 [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Price - The Fuji apple price index is 110.41 today, with a decrease of 0.15 compared to the next working day price of 110.56. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.84 today, with a decrease of 0.10 compared to the next working day price of 7.94. The prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70, Qixia first and second - grade paper - bag 80, etc., remain stable [2] Futures Price - AP01 closes at 8532 today, down 115 from yesterday's close of 8647; AP05 closes at 10144, down 577 from yesterday's close; AP10 closes at 8639, down 191 from yesterday's close. The spreads between different contracts also show corresponding changes [2] Basis - The basis of Qixia first and second - grade 80 - AP01 is - 532 today, up 115 from the previous trading day; the basis of Qixia first and second - grade 80 - AP05 is - 2144, up 577; the basis of Qixia first and second - grade 80 - AP10 is - 639.0, up 191 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Market News - As of March 19, the national cold - storage apple inventory is 468.43 million tons, a decrease of 31.29 million tons from last week, and the de - stocking speed is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The main market price of apples in the origin remains stable, with smooth transactions. The supply of high - quality goods in cold - storage is tight. The arrival of goods in the market is stable, and the overall sales situation is okay [7] Trading Logic - The fundamental situation of apples is strong, with low cold - storage inventory and poor quality, and the high cost of May contracts in the early stage led to a sharp rise in the price of May contracts. However, considering the high price of the May contract on the disk and the approaching position - limit time for the May contract, the upward momentum and time for the May contract are insufficient. As the key growth period of new - season apples approaches, the market will focus on the production of new - season apples. New - season apples currently have many flower buds, but the high early - stage temperature has increased the accumulated temperature, which may advance the apple flowering period and increase the risk of freezing damage. The current price of the October contract is high, and if the weather is normal later, it is an opportunity to arrange short positions. It is recommended to wait and see [5] Trading Strategy - For the single - side trading of the May contract, it is recommended to leave the market and wait and see. For both arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][8] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report provides 10 related figures, including the price of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bag 80, the price of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70, AP contract main basis, spreads between different AP contracts, the total apple arrival volume in Chalong, Jiangmen and Xiaqiao, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, the national cold - storage apple inventory, and the national cold - storage apple outbound volume [11][13][21]