【冠通期货研究报告】热卷日报：震荡偏强-20260324

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating of the hot - rolled coil industry is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [1] Core Viewpoint - The hot - rolled coil main contract is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias. Although the current situation is one of increasing supply and demand, with the apparent consumption rebounding significantly and the arrival of the seasonal peak season, and the overall output contracting, which supports the price, the high - level inventory restricts the upside space to a certain extent. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction progress [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures Price: On Tuesday, the open interest of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract decreased by 31,099 lots, with a trading volume of 253,950 lots, which was lower than the previous trading day. In terms of the moving average, it broke through the 5 - day moving average of around 3,312 in the short - term, was at the 30 - day moving average of 3,255, and was running above the medium - term resistance of the 60 - day moving average of around 3,272 [1] - Spot Price: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,300 yuan per ton [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was - 24 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: The actual weekly output was 300.21 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.95 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 24.12 million tons. Steel mills' resumption of production was moderate, and the supply contraction was obvious year - on - year, so the supply side exerted limited pressure on prices [4] - Demand: The apparent consumption was 310.51 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.15 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20.14 million tons. The resumption of work in the manufacturing industry drove the rebound of apparent demand, but it was still weak year - on - year. The intensity of demand recovery was the core variable in the future [4] - Inventory: Social inventory was 376.33 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.98 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 52.28 million tons. It was the first weekly inventory reduction, but the absolute quantity was still much higher than last year. Steel mill inventory was 84.96 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.32 million tons, and the inventory pressure was relieved. The total inventory was 461.29 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.3 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 51.39 million tons. It ended the inventory accumulation phase and entered the inventory reduction phase, but the total inventory was still at a high level. The entry into weekly inventory reduction verified the start of demand, but the absolute quantity of social inventory and the inventory - to - sales ratio were still at high levels, suppressing the upside space of prices [4] - Policy: On March 5, 2026, the National Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed issuing ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan and arranging special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan to strengthen the support for infrastructure and "Two New" projects, boosting medium - and long - term market confidence. However, the current manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, and there was no substantial improvement in downstream orders. It would take time for policies to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, and it was difficult to reverse the high - inventory situation in the short term [5] Market Driving Factors Analysis - Bullish Factors: Cost support, supply contraction, demand resilience, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and rising raw material prices [6] - Bearish Factors: Slow demand realization, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro - level disturbances [6]