每日核心期货品种分析-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on March 24, 2026. Factors such as the Middle - East situation, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes significantly influenced the prices of various commodities. The Middle - East situation, especially the conflict in the region and the status of the Hormuz Strait, had a major impact on the energy and chemical markets, leading to price fluctuations and uncertainties [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on March 24, domestic futures main contracts had different performances. Carbonate lithium rose over 6%, palladium over 4%, platinum over 3%, and some other commodities like Shanghai tin, Shanghai silver, and 20 - number rubber rose over 2%. On the other hand, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), SC crude oil fell over 8%, fuel oil over 7%, and ethylene glycol over 6%. In the stock index futures, all major contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 rose, while in the bond futures, 2 - year bond futures fell 0.02%, 5 - year bond futures were flat, 10 - year bond futures rose 0.02%, and 30 - year bond futures rose 0.52%. In terms of capital flow, funds flowed into Shanghai silver 2606, platinum 2606, and live hogs 2605, while funds flowed out of crude oil 2605, CSI 300 2606, and Shanghai gold 2604 [4][5]. 3.2. Market Analysis 3.2.1. Crude Oil - EIA data showed that the increase in US crude oil inventory exceeded expectations, but the decrease in refined oil inventory was significant, with a slight increase in overall oil product inventory. The market focused on the Middle - East situation. Iran's daily crude oil production was about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global production, and its daily exports were about 1.6 million barrels. The Hormuz Strait, through which about 13 million barrels of crude oil passed daily in 2025, accounting for about 31% of global seaborne crude oil flow, had been nearly shut down for many days, leading to production cuts in Middle - East oil - producing countries. Although some measures such as the release of strategic oil reserves and the relaxation of sanctions on some countries' oil industries alleviated short - term supply pressure, it was still less than the previous seaborne volume in the Hormuz Strait. The situation had not been truly eased, and the risk of crude oil prices rising further still existed [7][8]. 3.2.2. Asphalt - Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 21.8% compared with the previous week, and was 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, but the overall demand was still at a low level. The inventory rate of asphalt plants decreased slightly, and the price in Shandong continued to rise. Due to concerns about raw material shortages in domestic refineries, and with the situation in the Middle - East remaining tense and the Hormuz Strait still not navigable, it was expected that the asphalt price would follow the crude oil price and be strong and volatile in the near future [9]. 3.2.3. PP - As of the week of March 20, the downstream PP production rate rose by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36%, but the demand recovery was slow. On March 24, the PP enterprise production rate dropped to about 76.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire decreased to about 25.5%. Although the domestic supply - demand pattern of PP had improved, the downstream was resistant to high prices, and the spot trading was weak. If the Hormuz Strait could not resume navigation, the refinery production cuts would increase, and the PP price was expected to be in a strong - side shock in the near future [11]. 3.2.4. Plastic - On March 24, the plastic production rate dropped to about 82.5%. As of the week of March 20, the PE downstream production rate rose by 3.76 percentage points to 37.59%, but had not returned to the pre - holiday level. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory had decreased. Although new production capacity had been put into operation in January 2026, there were no new production capacity plans in the first quarter. The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastic had improved, but the downstream was resistant to high prices, and the spot trading was weak. If the Hormuz Strait could not resume navigation, the refinery production cuts would increase, and the plastic price was expected to be in a strong - side shock in the near future [12][14]. 3.2.5. PVC - The information about PVC is the same as that of plastic, including production rate, downstream production rate, inventory, cost, supply, and price trends. It was also expected to be in a strong - side shock in the near future if the Hormuz Strait could not resume navigation [15]. 3.2.6. Urea - Urea opened and closed lower today. After the futures market rose yesterday, the market transaction price rebounded slightly, but the futures fluctuated. The daily production of urea was maintained at around 21 - 220,000 tons, with sufficient supply. The downstream agricultural demand was weakening, but there was still some purchasing. The compound fertilizer factories maintained a high - production - rate inventory - reduction trend. The price was supported by cost increases and terminal demand, and the inventory continued to decline. Although affected by external market sentiment, the increase in urea price was limited, and it was expected to be in a high - level shock during the conflict [17].