瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20260324

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and investors should pay attention to the MA60 resistance. The macro - situation shows that Trump's dialogue with Iran has formed key points of an agreement, delaying the attack on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. Fundamentally, the import of nickel ore from the Philippines is decreasing due to the rainy season, while Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB production approval is faster than expected, easing supply concerns. The domestic refined nickel production is expected to rise again, and the demand from stainless steel plants and new - energy vehicles is improving. Technically, the increasing position and rising price indicate a strong bullish sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 133,480 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton. The spread between the 05 - 06 contracts is - 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 17,200 US dollars/ton, up 315 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 181,146 lots, an increase of 1,440 lots. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 54,932 lots, a decrease of 2,740 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 282,792 tons, a decrease of 720 tons. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 63,661 tons, a decrease of 20 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 17,640 tons, a decrease of 720 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 58,006 tons, an increase of 374 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 136,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 136,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,900 yuan/ton. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 2,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,200 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 188.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.2 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 199.28 million tons, a decrease of 134.67 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 792.66 million tons, a decrease of 65.68 million tons. - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 75.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.36 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,400 metal tons, unchanged. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 99.61 million tons, an increase of 10.07 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 185.81 million tons, an increase of 11.09 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 62.42 million tons, a decrease of 1.28 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation is in a deadlock. Trump said the US and Iran had a "strong" dialogue and formed key points of an agreement, delaying the attack on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days. Iran has repeatedly denied having a dialogue with the US. - State Power Investment Corporation plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 17%. It aims to complete 23 billion yuan of investment in the first quarter, a year - on - year increase of 35%. - US Vice - President Vance and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed the efforts to start negotiations with Iran and the elements of a potential agreement to end the war with Iran. Netanyahu said he had a call with Trump, and Trump thought there was an opportunity to achieve all war goals through an agreement. Meanwhile, Israel continues to attack Iran and Lebanon. - Fed's Goolsbee said inflation is the primary risk, not ruling out the possibility of raising interest rates, while still retaining the space for rate cuts this year. Other Fed officials also expressed their views on inflation and interest - rate policies [3].