不锈钢产业日报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stainless - steel futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly, break through the MA10 pressure, and the upper limit to be concerned about is 14,500 yuan/ton. The raw material supply is shrinking, the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, but the cost support has moved up. The downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, and exports will face pressure. The current inventory level is basically the same as that of the same period last year, and the inventory pressure is controllable. With the resumption of work of downstream enterprises, it is gradually entering the destocking cycle. The long - position atmosphere is relatively strong in terms of technical analysis [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 14,290 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 255 yuan/ton; the spread between the 05 - 06 contracts of stainless - steel is 55 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The net long - position volume of the top 20 futures positions is - 1,434 hands, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 1,610 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 124,889 hands, with a ring - to - ring increase of 6,453 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity is 43,659 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1,934 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 14,950 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,750 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of stainless - steel is 435 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 30 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 21,400 metal tons, with no change. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 996,100 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 100,700 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 136,150 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 1,700 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,105 yuan/nickel point, with no change. The monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless - steel is 1.8581 million tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 110,900 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 624,200 tons, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 12,800 tons. The monthly export volume of stainless - steel is 458,500 tons, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 58,769.96 million square meters, with a ring - to - ring increase of 5,313.26 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 37,300 units, with a ring - to - ring increase of 3,700 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units, with a ring - to - ring increase of 9,500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation is in a stalemate. Trump said the US and Iran had a "strong" dialogue and formed the main points of an agreement, and would suspend attacks on its energy facilities for 5 days. But Iran has repeatedly denied having a dialogue with the US. - State Power Investment Corporation plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 17%. In the first quarter, it will complete an investment of 23 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 35%. - US Vice - President Vance had a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss the efforts to start negotiations with Iran and the elements of a potential agreement to end the war with Iran. Netanyahu said he had a phone call with Trump and emphasized that Israel was still attacking Iran and Lebanon. - Fed's Goolsbee said inflation is the primary risk, not ruling out the possibility of raising interest rates, and still retaining the space for interest - rate cuts this year. Milan said that if there are second - round effects of inflation and wage increases, interest rates may need to be raised, but currently does not think it is necessary to consider raising interest rates. Daly said too much forward - looking guidance would create a false sense of certainty and still expects four interest - rate cuts in 2026 [2]