FICC日报：4月合约临近交割，关注马士基4月第二周开价-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2604 contract is approaching delivery, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo - collection price changes. The freight rate of the European line may be affected by the increase in supply pressure caused by the transfer of Middle - East operating vessels to the European line. The subsequent game point is the actual demand in April under high capacity. The valuation of the April contract is gradually becoming clear, but the volatility of the EC2604 contract may be amplified due to geopolitical risks [4][5]. - The contracts for the relatively peak seasons of June, July, and August have strong expectations. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's reopening in the first half of the year, the relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and the relatively high year - on - year growth rate of the monthly demand from Asia to Europe. However, the actual freight rates in the future are still unknown, and investors need to respond flexibly [6]. - The Houthi rebels' possible blockade of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait may drive up the prices of far - month contracts. Although the number of container ships passing through the Gulf of Aden has decreased significantly, the blockade will impact the global supply chain and drive up the freight rates of global shipping routes [7]. - The trading strategy is to go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610, and there is no unilateral strategy for now [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of March 23, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 46,216.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 63,634.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2607, EC2608, EC2609, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1957.40, 2378.80, 2692.90, 2783.00, 2564.00, 1835.40, 1648.00, and 1815.00 respectively [8]. 3.2 Spot Prices - On March 20, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1636 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 2054 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2922 US dollars/FEU. On March 23, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1693.26 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1024.11 points [8]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU were delivered in 2026. Among them, 6 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 86,000 TEU were delivered, and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a capacity of 17,148 TEU was delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, 679,000 TEU (46 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,224,000 TEU (84 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,636,000 TEU (81 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 [2][3]. - Dynamic supply: The average weekly capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 2 weeks of March was 296,500 TEU. The capacities in Week 13 and Week 14 were 292,000 and 300,900 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in April was 311,900 TEU, and the capacities in Week 15, Week 16, Week 17, and Week 18 were 337,000, 266,700, 306,300, and 337,400 TEU respectively. The average monthly capacity in May was 305,700 TEU, and the capacities in Week 19, Week 20, Week 21, and Week 22 were 338,600, 300,900, 289,700, and 293,900 TEU respectively. There were 3 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in April, and 6 TBNs in May [3]. 3.4 Supply Chain - The Houthi rebels in Yemen claim that they may block the Bab el - Mandeb Strait, which may drive up the far - month contracts. Since December 2023, the number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden has decreased significantly, from 80 per day to about 30 per day. The number of container ships passing through has decreased from more than 20 per day to about 5 per day, and the TEU has decreased from more than 200,000 TEU per day to about 50,000 TEU per day [7]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The year - on - year growth rate of the monthly demand from Asia to Europe has been relatively high, with the year - on - year growth rate of container trade volume in most months exceeding 10%. After the outbreak of the Israel - Iran conflict, new expectations have emerged for the peak - season contracts. Attention should be paid to whether developed countries in Europe and the United States will increase imports of domestic goods due to concerns about future inflation after the sharp increase in oil prices, which may drive up domestic export demand. At the same time, the expectation of a global economic recession caused by the excessive increase in oil prices should be guarded against [6].