【冠通期货研究报告】螺纹日报：震荡整理-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The rebar market is expected to maintain a volatile and moderately strong pattern. The rebar main contract is running strongly above the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. In the future, it will mainly follow the spot price to repair the basis. With the arrival of the peak season, the fundamentals are in a state of demand recovery and inventory reduction, which supports market sentiment. Geopolitical events affect cost changes and export expectations. However, continuous attention should be paid to the downstream resumption progress and inventory reduction speed [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Tuesday, the position of the rebar main contract decreased by 87,899 lots, and the trading volume shrank compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 618,964 lots. The daily moving average broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3,139, and the daily line is above the medium - term 30 - day moving average of 3,095 and the 60 - day moving average of 3,115, indicating that the short - and medium - term trends are strengthening [1]. - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area is 3,250 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price is at a discount of 105 yuan/ton to the spot price [2]. Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation - Supply side: In the week of March 19, 2026, the rebar production was 2.0333 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 80,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 228,800 tons. The steel mill's resumption of production is moderate, and the supply - side pressure on prices is limited [3]. - Demand side: In the week of March 19, 2026, the current apparent demand was 2.0809 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 312,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 349,100 tons. Seasonal resumption of work drives the rebound of apparent demand, but it is still weak year - on - year. The intensity of demand recovery is the core variable in the follow - up [3]. - Inventory side: The social inventory is 6.5321 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,400 tons, starting to reduce inventory slightly. The steel mill inventory is 2.362 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,200 tons, also starting to reduce inventory. The total inventory is 8.8941 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,600 tons, entering the weekly inventory reduction for the first time, which verifies the start of demand. However, the absolute inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio are still at a high level, suppressing the upward space of prices [3]. - Cost and profit: The steel price valuation is at a low level. Geopolitical factors drive up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3]. - Macroeconomic aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, released positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as "issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds", "arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds", and "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" to stabilize growth. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support has increased, and the sentiment has received phased support [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low steel price valuation, geopolitical factors driving up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support repair [6]. - Bearish factors: Persistently weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slowdown in inventory reduction speed, and bearish capital position structure [6].