银河期货液化气日报-20260324

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint LPG prices are still driven by geopolitical factors. The ongoing conflict has led to high oil prices and a reduction in LPG production. Although the current PDH operation is okay, the lack of raw materials poses a potential risk. The market is currently focused on the possibility of negotiations between the two parties. The trading strategy is to hold long positions with a bullish bias [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil and Gas Market - The freight rate for shipping Saudi crude oil from the Red Sea to Asia by shipowners has plummeted in the past few weeks due to more tankers flocking to Yanbu Port to carry oil diverted from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - US President Trump said that after what he called a "fruitful dialogue" between the US and Iran, the US will postpone the strike on Iran's energy infrastructure, which has caused confusion about the participants in the dialogue and the specific scope of the agreement [3]. - The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have taken steps to intervene in the Iranian war, which may mean an escalation of the conflict [3]. - A Chinese fuel tanker has sailed out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz on a route previously used by other ships with Iran's approval [3]. 3.2 Spot Overview - Shandong Region: The estimated price of civil LPG in Shandong is 6,560 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 10 yuan/ton. The market had a smooth sales volume and premium performance yesterday, but the market's upward momentum decreased after the early morning plunge in crude oil prices. Due to the tight supply-demand fundamentals, the mainstream prices remained stable with sporadic small increases today. The ether post - market in Shandong was generally stable with sporadic price changes, and the overall trading atmosphere was okay. Although the short - term decline in crude oil prices was a constraint, the low - supply expectations inside and outside the region still exist. Each manufacturer's shipments and inventory are controllable, and they are holding prices and waiting. It is expected that the ether post - market in Shandong will remain generally stable and sporadically try to increase prices tomorrow [5]. - East China Region: The mainstream transaction price of imported LPG in East China is 7,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Today, the mainstream price of imported LPG in the East China market is between 7,350 - 7,800 yuan/ton. With limited future arrivals, terminals are reluctant to sell, and importers have a firm attitude. Although the decline in crude oil prices affects market sentiment, most terminals have low inventories, and domestic gas prices are strong. Today, the imported LPG in East China remained generally stable with individual increases [5]. - South China Region: The average transaction price of domestic LPG in South China is 7,105 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 25 yuan/ton; the average price of imported LPG is 7,300 yuan/ton, remaining stable from yesterday. Today, the South China market was generally stable with sporadic adjustments. Some low - priced areas still had price increases, while high - priced resources gradually stabilized, and some even showed signs of weakening. As prices are at a high level, the decline in international oil prices affects sentiment, and downstream inventory levels are high, the market's trading atmosphere has become weaker, and industry players are mostly on the sidelines. However, due to concerns about the supply side in the volatile situation, it is expected that prices will remain at a high level in the short term [6]. - North China Region: The benchmark price of civil LPG in North China is 6,288 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Today, the North China market was generally stable with individual price drops. Downstream buyers entered the market cautiously, and production and sales were controllable [6].