油粕日报：关注近月到港-20260324

Report Summary 1. Core View - Brazil's soybean harvest progress in the 2025/26 season is 68% as of March 19, 2026, 8 percentage points higher than the previous week but still behind last year's 80%. The harvest speeded up due to rainfall interruption in the Matopiba region and significant progress in previously lagging states [1] - The expected spring soybean planting area in the US this year is 86.1 million acres, higher than the USDA's February forecast of 85 million acres. The expected corn planting area is 94.4 million acres, higher than the February forecast of 94 million acres. The market is waiting for the USDA's planting intention report [1] - As of March 19, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume for the week was 1,101,730 tons, compared with 833,816 tons in the same period last year. The total US soybean export inspection volume so far in the 2025/26 season is 29,182,214 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%, reaching 68.1% of the annual export target [1] - Brazil's shipping recovery eases concerns about near - month arrivals. If soybean arrivals are normal and state reserve sales are implemented, the near - month crushing profit will narrow slightly, but the decline is limited due to high import costs [2] - In March, palm oil trade flow changed significantly due to energy market fluctuations and new policy pressures. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased supply - chain risks, disrupted regional trade, and led to longer shipping routes, higher freight uncertainties, and increased insurance costs. Refiners in the region are consuming inventory instead of purchasing new goods [2] - Indonesia's increase in export tax and the improvement of biodiesel economic benefits make exporters re - evaluate export volumes. The rise in diesel prices encourages more palm oil for domestic energy use. Market speculation about the B50 policy resurfaced, which may increase Indonesia's domestic crude palm oil demand by about 2 million tons and tighten export supply [2] - As of March 20, 2026, the total commercial inventory of three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in China is 2312900 tons, a decrease of 57000 tons (2.41%) from last week and a decrease of 62900 tons (2.65%) year - on - year [3] - Trump's social media message led to a decline in the crude oil and oil sectors. The short - term price movement of the oil sector is hard to predict due to the unresolved Iran issue. Whether crude oil prices can remain high is the most important factor for the oil trend [3][4] 2. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Bean Meal - Brazilian Soybean Harvest: As of March 19, 2026, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest progress is 68%, up 8 percentage points from the previous week but behind last year's 80% [1] - US Planting Forecast: The expected US soybean planting area this spring is 86.1 million acres, and the expected corn planting area is 94.4 million acres, both higher than February forecasts [1] - US Soybean Exports: As of March 19, 2026, the weekly US soybean export inspection volume is 1,101,730 tons. The total export inspection volume in the 2025/26 season so far is 29,182,214 tons, down 27.0% year - on - year, reaching 68.1% of the annual target [1] - Near - Month Situation: Brazil's shipping recovery eases near - month arrival concerns. If arrivals are normal and state reserve sales occur, near - month crushing profit will narrow slightly with limited decline due to high import costs [2] Oils - Palm Oil Trade: In March, palm oil trade flow changed due to energy market and policy factors. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased supply - chain risks. Indonesia's export tax increase and biodiesel economic benefits change export decisions. The B50 policy speculation may tighten palm oil export supply [2] - Inventory: As of March 20, 2026, the total commercial inventory of three major oils in China is 2312900 tons, down 2.41% from last week and 2.65% year - on - year [3] - Price Trend: Trump's social media message led to a decline in the oil sector. The short - term price movement is hard to predict, and crude oil price level is the key factor for the oil trend [3][4]