PP日报：PP低开后震荡下行-20260324

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - PP domestic supply - demand pattern has improved, but downstream has a high - price resistance. With the high sentiment of chemical products, if the Strait of Hormuz fails to resume navigation, refinery production cuts will increase, and the recent PP price will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption after the festival and the Middle East situation [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - As of the week of March 20, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand recovered slowly due to low acceptance of high - price raw materials. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawing materials, decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 40.28%. On March 24, new restarted devices led to a decline in the PP enterprise operating rate to about 76.5% (a relatively low level), and the production ratio of standard drawing materials dropped to about 25.5%. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory decreased and is now at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years. Cost - side: Trump's statement about suspending strikes on Iranian energy facilities caused a sharp drop in oil prices, but Iran denied the negotiation, and the decline in crude oil prices narrowed. The operating rate has slightly recovered recently but is still lower than at the end of February. After the Lantern Festival, downstream rigid demand was released, and the price of BOPP film increased. The Middle East situation affects the energy - chemical industry, and although PP doesn't rely on Middle - East imports, its upstream depends on Middle - East LPG and crude oil, and the Middle - East PP production capacity accounts for 9% of the world and about 25% of global polyolefin exports [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Futures - The PP2605 contract opened lower, reduced positions, and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 9,073 yuan/ton, the highest was 9,542 yuan/ton, and the final closing price was 9,114 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 3.82%. The position decreased by 59,592 lots to 339,558 lots [2] 3.3. Spot - PP spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. The price of drawing materials was reported at 8,770 - 9,580 yuan/ton [3] 3.4. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On March 24, new restarted devices led to a decline in the PP enterprise operating rate to about 76.5% (a relatively low level), and the production ratio of standard drawing materials dropped to about 25.5%. Demand side: As of the week of March 20, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand recovered slowly due to low acceptance of high - price raw materials. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawing materials, decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 40.28%. Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Tuesday decreased by 15,000 tons to 905,000 tons week - on - week, 55,000 tons higher than the same period in the previous lunar year, and is now at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years. Raw material: The Brent crude oil 05 contract dropped to $102/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $70/ton week - on - week to $1,200/ton [4]