铁矿日报：短期扰动因素较多，基本面压力仍存-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue its high - level oscillation. The supply side remains loose, the demand side sees an increase in molten iron production. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand. The overall fundamentals are still weak. Due to the dual disturbances of the supply side and geopolitics, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. The positive basis and the continuation of the BACK structure limit the short - term downside space [2][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated slightly stronger during the day, closing at 824 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 220,000 lots, the open interest was 446,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.083 billion yuan. The short - term support below is around 810, and the short - term pressure above is around 830 [1] - Spot price: For port spot mainstream varieties, Qingdao Port PB powder was at 798 (unchanged), Super Special powder was at 677 (unchanged), and the main swap was at 108.2 (- 0.05) US dollars/ton. The swap was oscillating at a high level, and the spot price remained unchanged [1] - Basis and spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 831.3 yuan/ton, with a basis of 7.3 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 33.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 24 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrivals this period recovered month - on - month. Geopolitical disturbances continued, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuated. The new CEO of BHP will take office on July 1, 2026, and its possible impact on negotiation progress and spot liquidity should be noted [2] - Demand: The profitability rate of steel mills increased month - on - month. After the Two Sessions, the environmental protection restrictions in Hebei were lifted, and the blast furnaces under maintenance resumed production. The molten iron production recovered month - on - month, and some steel mills extended the resumption of production. There is still room for the recovery of molten iron. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand [2] - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, the berthing inventory declined, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory accumulated [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: The "15th Five - Year Plan" outline was released. On the basis of continuing the "14th Five - Year Plan" indicator framework, the target for the added value of the core digital economy industries was raised, and new indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy were added. The domestic macro - economy is generally stable and has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. The domestic port container throughput and the CRB index are at seasonal highs, and South Korea's exports in early March increased significantly, indicating that external demand remains resilient [3] - Overseas: The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to affect the financial market, and major asset prices fluctuated significantly today [4]