天然橡胶日报：震荡偏弱-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating weakly" for the natural rubber industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Rubber prices are expected to show a weak oscillation because the raw material prices are firm during the low - yield season, the supply is expected to increase as the tapping season begins, the demand recovers well, but high inventory and rising bonded - area inventory put pressure on prices [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On March 24, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,225 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +0.37%. The market price center of natural rubber rose slightly. The intended transaction price of the mainstream SCRWF in the Shanghai market was 16,050 - 16,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the intended transaction price of the mainstream Vietnam 3L mixed rubber was 16,500 - 16,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] 3.2 Supply - From January to February 2026, the cumulative import of natural rubber was 1.1065 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,900 tons, or 1.36%. The import volume from January to February 2026 was slightly lower than that in the same period of 2023, ranking second in the same period in history. The international market demand is average, and domestic downstream pre - holiday stocking and arbitrage positions support the high import base. The global natural rubber will enter a new tapping season from mid - March in the Yunnan region, and the expected growth of new rubber supply is rising due to high raw material prices [2] 3.3 Demand - On March 20, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tires in China was 78.25%, and that of all - steel tires was 70.72%, both higher than the historical average. The operating rate of tire production lines has recovered, downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and automobile exports have exceeded expectations. Some enterprises have turned to purchasing lower - priced natural rubber to replace synthetic rubber, which provides short - term support for natural rubber demand [3] 3.4 Inventory - In the week of March 20, the inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 141,300 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons or 1.29% from the previous period. The inventory of natural rubber in general trade warehouses in the Qingdao area was 561,600 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons or 1.63% from the previous period [5]