流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题：不含权地方债提前偿还对估值有何影响

Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquidity situation remains stable, with interbank lending rates showing a downward trend, but the space for further declines in the one-year deposit rate is limited due to constrained policy rates and expectations of no significant interest rate cuts in the short term [8][5] - As of March 29, 2026, local government bonds issued reached a total of 30,804 billion yuan, with 16,143 billion yuan (52%) being long-term bonds and 11,308 billion yuan (37%) allocated for debt repayment [12][40] - The report highlights that the early repayment of non-privileged bonds has a minimal impact on valuations, typically within 2 basis points, as evidenced by recent events in Shaanxi province [13][41] Group 2 - The second quarter issuance plan for local government bonds is set to be concentrated, with a total of 15,827 billion yuan planned for issuance from April to June, including 6,786 billion yuan in April, 4,935 billion yuan in May, and 4,106 billion yuan in June [12][41] - The report notes that the net financing of local government bonds as of March 29, 2026, is slightly lower than the same period last year, with cumulative net financing of 24,294 billion yuan [12][40] - The report emphasizes the significant increase in net purchases of 15-year and 20-year local government bonds by small and medium banks and other institutions in Q1 2026, with total purchases of 1,148 billion yuan and 355 billion yuan, respectively [13][41]