【冠通期货研究报告】玻璃、纯碱日报：日内震荡偏强-20260324

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The glass market is in a game between "supply contraction expectations" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - demand" (real - estate downturn), with high inventory being the biggest pressure on the market rebound. The market is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and terminal demand recovery [1]. - The core logic of the soda ash market is the mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The market is expected to maintain volatile fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to energy price changes and whether high inventory can be continuously reduced [2]. Summary by Related Content Glass - The glass main contract opened lower and moved higher, showing a slightly stronger intraday oscillation. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands have a downward trend, indicating a short - term weak oscillation signal. The intraday pressure is around the 10 - day moving average of 1090, and the support is around the previous low of 1030. The trading volume decreased by 397,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 5,825 lots. The intraday high was 1079, the low was 1056, and the closing price was 1064, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton (a 1.12% increase is a wrong description here, it should be a decrease) compared with yesterday's settlement price [1]. - The core contradiction in the glass market lies in the game between "supply contraction expectations" and "weak real - demand". High inventory is the biggest pressure on the market rebound. Last month's real - estate data continued to be sluggish, and the recent recovery of downstream demand was also less than expected. The spot market still faces the pressure of high inventory and weak demand. The short - term market is affected by geopolitical news and fluctuates with international energy and raw material costs [1]. Soda Ash - The soda ash main contract opened lower and moved higher, showing a slightly stronger intraday oscillation. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands are in a tightening horn shape, indicating a short - term oscillation signal. The pressure is around the upper track of the Bollinger Bands at 1290, and the short - term support is around the 5 - day moving average of 1220. The trading volume decreased by 431,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 11,088 lots. The intraday high was 1257, the low was 1225, and the closing price was 1240, a rise of 3 yuan/ton, with a 0.24% increase compared with yesterday's settlement price [2]. - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1811,600 tons, a decrease of 42,200 tons (a 2.28% decrease) compared with last Thursday. Among them, light soda ash is 946,800 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons month - on - month, and heavy soda ash is 864,800 tons, a decrease of 25,900 tons month - on - month [2]. - The core logic of the soda ash market is the mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short - term geopolitical risks push up energy costs and marginal inventory reduction support the market. However, due to the expected reduction in float glass production and the impact of the photovoltaic industry, the rigid demand for soda ash is weak. Overall, the fundamental driving force of soda ash is still weakening, and the market may face the risk of continuing to adjust downward in an oscillatory manner [2].