尿素日报：高位震荡-20260324

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea futures opened lower and closed lower today, and the market mainly made purchases as needed. The overall supply is abundant, the downstream agricultural demand is weakening but there is still some end - of - season procurement. The price is supported by cost and terminal shipping, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline next week. During the conflict, it is expected to mainly oscillate at a high level [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The futures market opened low and closed lower today. After yesterday's futures rally, the market transaction price rebounded slightly, but the futures oscillated repeatedly. The factory ex - factory quotes in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan are in the range of 1810 - 1840 yuan/ton. The daily output is around 21 - 220,000 tons, and the state - reserve supply has entered the market. The downstream agricultural demand is weakening but still has some end - of - season procurement. The compound fertilizer factory is maintaining a high - start - up inventory - reduction trend and is expected to continue to increase capacity utilization next week. The price is supported by cost and terminal shipping, and the inventory has continued to decline this period. Affected by Trump's threat remarks, urea followed the energy - chemical sector up yesterday and adjusted today. Under the main logic of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the domestic market, the increase is limited and it is expected to oscillate at a high level during the conflict [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1866 yuan/ton, closed lower, and finally closed at 1864 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.06%. The trading volume was 204,042 lots (-16,190 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions decreased by 4,953 lots and the short positions decreased by 8,763 lots. Fangzheng Mid - term had a net long position of - 742 lots, Wukuang Futures had a net long position of + 443 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net short position of - 1,415 lots, and Guotai Junan had a net short position of - 1,525 lots [2] Spot - After yesterday's futures rally, the market transaction price rebounded slightly, but the futures oscillated repeatedly, and the market mainly made purchases as needed. The factory ex - factory quotes in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan are in the range of 1810 - 1840 yuan/ton [1][4] 3. Warehouse Receipts - On March 24, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,712, the same as the previous trading day [3] 4. Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes were stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was - 4 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [8] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on March 24, 2026, the national daily urea output was 215,800 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 86.03% [9]