国投期货贵金属日报-20260324

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core View - The situation between the US and Iran remains uncertain. Before the war shows obvious signs of easing, precious metals may maintain a weak operation, and the gold price is testing the support at $4000 per ounce [1] - The marginal tightening direction of US dollar liquidity remains unchanged. Platinum and palladium are priced based on the logic of industrial metals. The consumption - end narrative of large - scale application of hydrogen energy still needs time to materialize, and the consumption end has insufficient support for platinum and palladium prices. However, due to the rigid constraints at the mine end of platinum and palladium resources, there is still a resource - end premium, and the strong support below for platinum and palladium is temporarily seen at the 350 - yuan - per - gram level [2] Summary by Related Information Market News - Fed Governor Milan said that if there are second - round effects of inflation and wage increases, interest rate hikes may be needed, but currently, there is no need to consider it. It is still expected that there will be four interest rate cuts in 2026, and the inflation dot - plot at the end of this year is raised to 2.7%, expecting overall inflation to rise [3] - Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US economic recession to 30% and still expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September and December [3] - The global central bank director of the World Gold Council, Shaokai Fan, said that gold's role as a hedge against de - dollarization and geopolitical risks is expected to prompt central banks that were previously absent from the market to buy this precious metal this year [3] - An Israeli official said that the US has set April 9 as the target date to end the war against Iran, meaning there are about 21 days left for continued fighting and negotiations [3]