有色金属日报-20260324

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined in the provided content [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation which lacks clear meaning [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined [1] - Zinc: ★★★, indicating a more distinct uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The research focuses on the market conditions and trends of various non - ferrous metals, analyzing factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and geopolitical events, and providing corresponding price trend judgments and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Tuesday, Shanghai copper decreased in volume and closed with a negative candle, and overnight copper prices rebounded with Trump's unilateral release of US - Iran negotiation news. This week, key indicators are limited, and attention should be paid to whether a preliminary passage agreement can be reached after the one - month stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz. The decline in copper prices attracted mid - and downstream buyers, and some refined copper rod enterprises actively replenished stocks. In the short - and medium - term critical period of the war game, if an effective directional agreement is temporarily reached, the short - term market fluctuations may be similar to the impact of reciprocal tariffs last year. Technically, the strong support for copper prices is first at 91,000, and attention should also be paid to the MA40 weekly moving average [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China were 140 yuan, 170 yuan, and 170 yuan respectively. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased slightly compared with last Thursday. As the aluminum price fell, the inventory and spot market feedback improved. Attention should be paid to whether this can be sustained. High energy prices suppress the economic outlook and interest rate path, and market sentiment fluctuates with war news. Shanghai aluminum should pay attention to the key support at 23,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with the aluminum price, and the price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum fluctuates around 1,000 yuan under the swinging macro - sentiment. The operating capacity of domestic alumina is temporarily stable, and the surplus situation has improved. However, two alumina plants in Guangxi are about to enter the trial production stage, and imported supplies will also increase, so the surplus prospect remains unchanged. In the short term, alumina oscillates and waits for the guidance of Guinea's mining policy [3] Zinc - Trump announced the postponement of the strike on Iranian power plants and set a 5 - day negotiation period. The market saw a "TACO" again, and zinc prices rebounded following the non - ferrous metal sector. However, there are still concerns about the marginal tightening of liquidity. Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US recession to 30%. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots exceeded 250,000 tons, and Shanghai zinc is in an overall surplus and pressured state. Overseas mines are tight and energy prices are high, so the production increase space of zinc ingots is limited, and the supply - side pressure is mainly in the domestic market. Without a significant rebound in TC, the smelting cost line of domestic smelters will still provide strong support for the disk. Demand is gradually showing peak - season characteristics, and Shanghai zinc is expected to gradually enter a range consolidation, with the price range temporarily at 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum - Overseas aluminum ingot destocking is not smooth, and domestic aluminum ingots are still in the stage of price - cut destocking. The surplus dominates the weak operation of lead prices. Against the background of high by - product prices, the comprehensive cost of primary aluminum smelters is low, and the center of the disk is under pressure. The profit of recycled aluminum is not good, and some smelters still reduce production or postpone resuming production. Shanghai aluminum has strong support at the 16,200 yuan/ton line. However, the import profit is good, overseas low - cost crude aluminum is supplemented to the domestic market, and the price of waste batteries is hard to rise significantly. Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a low level [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillated, market trading declined, and positions slowly recovered. The strong US dollar exerts overall pressure on the market. The demand for stainless steel in the peak season is lower than expected, and downstream only replenishes stocks for rigid needs, with light trading. Due to macro uncertainties, the futures oscillate weakly and are difficult to drive the spot market. Although the social inventory has decreased slightly, it is still at a high level and the destocking is slow; steel mills maintain high production schedules, and the supply pressure is large. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 6,550 yuan, the discount of imported nickel is 150 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel pig iron per unit has dropped nearly 10 yuan, closing at 1,086.5 yuan per unit. The rebound of upstream prices continues to push up the mid - stream prices and form cost support. In the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. Nickel and stainless steel have high inventories, and attention should be paid to further changes in Indonesian policies, with an overall tendency to weak oscillation [7] Tin - Shanghai tin decreased in volume and oscillated during the session. The short - term trading rhythm is guided by the stock market, and the core of the market is still the Middle East war situation. On the supply side, China's imports of tin concentrates in the first two months have improved significantly year - on - year, and the production of tin concentrates in major producing countries has been continuously stable. The mainstream quotes of domestic tin concentrates from third - party sources have gradually recovered. On this basis, it is generally expected that the domestic refined tin production will return to normal levels in March. On the consumption side, as the tin price falls, it boosts the domestic replenishment willingness, and the Middle East war situation has a certain impact on the normal production of the low - and medium - end integrated circuit industry chain in Southeast Asia. The tin market may be strong domestically and weak overseas, and in terms of trend, the price may still seek support at the 300,000 integer mark and the medium - and long - term weekly K - line moving average. Mid - and downstream enterprises should make rigid purchases at the right time, and the 2605 option can appropriately focus on the direction of selling out - of - the - money put options [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate oscillates strongly, and market trading is active. The total market inventory decreased by 100 tons to 99,000 tons, the smelter inventory increased by 300 tons to 16,600 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 500 tons to 44,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 36,000 tons. The overall destocking speed has slowed down, and the change in inventory structure is worthy of attention. The decline in smelter inventory has slowed down, and the confidence of traders in hoarding goods has wavered, and they have started to sell to downstream. From the perspective of production, the production of lithium carbonate returned to a high level at the beginning of March. The weekly production has continuously reached new highs, waiting for the inflection point of inventory. The latest quote of Australian ore is 2,045 US dollars, and the ore - end quote has loosened. Technically, the lithium market is resistant to decline and should be considered from an oscillatory perspective [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, and the upward momentum has weakened; the spot silicon price in East China remained stable compared with yesterday. On the supply side, the weekly operating rate in Xinjiang has remained stable, and leading enterprises have no new production plans; there is also no large - scale resumption of production willingness in Yunnan and Sichuan production areas, and the overall supply side is relatively stable. On the demand side, the weekly production of polysilicon is flat, the price has dropped significantly, the industry is in the loss range, and with the expectation of the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy in April, the export orders of organic silicon may weaken periodically, and the overall downstream demand is weak. In general, the current industrial silicon market presents a situation of weak supply and demand, and the social inventory continues to run at a high level, maintaining fluctuations around 550,000 tons. It is expected that the silicon price will continue to oscillate in the short term [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to run weakly, closing at 35,730 yuan/ton. On the demand side, affected by the cancellation of the export tax rebate, coupled with the limited large - scale start of domestic demand, the component production schedule in April is expected to be lowered, and the component inventory in March has increased significantly compared with last month, providing weak support for upstream raw materials. In the spot market, the polysilicon quote continued to be lowered. The SMM's N - type dense material quote is 40,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton compared with yesterday. Recently, the sales volume of spot enterprises has increased, driving the inventory to decline marginally. The futures price has approached 35,000 yuan/ton, and according to the public cost calculation, it is close to the cash cost of leading enterprises. Although the medium - term trend is still bearish, the short - term downward space is limited [11]