原油价格推演下的：通胀、债券和权益中观利润传导：

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the impact of crude oil price changes on inflation, bonds, and mid - level industry profits. It estimates the potential increase in crude oil prices under different scenarios of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and details the effects on inflation in the US and China, as well as the performance of US Treasury bonds and Chinese bonds. It also examines how crude oil price changes affect the cost and profit of mid - level industries [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Crude Oil Supply Loss Assessment and Price Limit Deduction - Before the Middle East geopolitical conflict, about 24 million barrels per day of various oil products (mainly crude oil) from major Middle Eastern oil - producing countries were exported through the Strait of Hormuz. After the blockade, the total oil product exports from the Strait of Hormuz dropped to about 13.72 million barrels per day, with an actual supply loss of about 14 million barrels per day (subject to correction by factors such as production increases in other countries, "reserve releases" by IEA member countries, and refinery load reduction). - Using the average Brent price of about $71 per barrel in February before the war as the starting point, if the blockade lasts for 8 - 12 weeks, the Brent oil price central range may be between $86 - 95 per barrel at the lower bound and $85 - 123 per barrel at the upper bound. If the blockade extends to 16 weeks, Brent is likely to stabilize in the $100 - 105 per barrel range and may challenge the 2022 high of $140 per barrel [3][8][9]. 3.2 Impact of Crude Oil Prices on US Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and US Treasury Bonds 3.2.1 Four Weeks into the War: Major Asset Pricing of Risks Remains Relatively Restrained - The current situation has evolved into a more intense and long - lasting conflict. Major asset markets' responses to risks are relatively muted compared to the 2022 situation. The real - time supply gap caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade is the core factor affecting the market, and the spot market for energy and chemical industries is experiencing a supply shortage [13][15]. 3.2.2 Crude Oil - Inflation Transmission: Using a Macro Model to Analyze the Impact of Oil Prices on Inflation - If crude oil prices rise by $10, $20, $30, or $50, the year - on - year CPI increase in the first quarter will be 0.15%, 0.3%, over 0.4%, and 0.7% respectively, and in the second to fourth quarters, it will be 0.2%, 0.4%, nearly 0.6%, and 0.95 - 1.0% respectively [20][22]. 3.2.3 The " $100 per Barrel" Watershed Effect: Regression Analysis of Brent Crude Oil Year - on - Year, CPI Year - on - Year, and Inflation Expectations - The regression analysis shows that the year - on - year change in US CPI can be explained by about 17% of the change in crude oil prices. When the oil price exceeds $100, inflation expectations will deviate significantly from the linear regression level. Currently, inflation expectations are underestimated, and there is an upward adjustment space [26][30][31]. 3.2.4 US Treasury Bond Market Strategy: The Impact of Inflation + VaR Risks May Not End - Currently, the pricing of inflation expectations in the US Treasury bond market is insufficient. The Strait of Hormuz issue remains unresolved, and oil prices still have upward risks. The Back structure of the inflation curve will flatten the US Treasury bond yield curve. In a "stagflation" environment, ultra - short - term Treasury bonds show a "cash is king" characteristic [40][41]. 3.3 Impact of Crude Oil Prices on Chinese Inflation and Chinese Treasury Bonds - The correlation between crude oil prices and China's PPI is as high as 0.78, while the correlation with CPI is only 0.21. If oil prices rise by 10%, China's PPI will rise by about 0.66 percentage points. In different scenarios where the average crude oil price rises to $100 - $150 per barrel, the corresponding PPI readings will range from 2.3% to 6.7% [50][53]. - In the scenario of rising crude oil prices and increasing inflation pressure, macro - control should focus on cost relief and structural optimization on the supply side. In the scenario of oil prices rising and then falling, policies will focus on boosting domestic demand. In both stagflation and slow - recovery scenarios, risks in interest - rate bonds need to be vigilant. The report maintains a defensive strategy for interest - rate bonds, recommending flexible strategies such as hedging at high prices, positive arbitrage at appropriate times, and stage - based long - position in inter - period spreads [54][55][60]. 3.4 Impact of Crude Oil Prices on Mid - level Industry Profits 3.4.1 Cost Side: Industries Sensitive to Crude Oil Price Increases - Industries that directly consume crude oil in production are mainly concentrated in petroleum refining and petrochemicals. Industries that indirectly consume crude oil through intermediate products are mainly in basic chemicals, agricultural chemicals, transportation, mining and smelting, textiles, and heat supply [64]. 3.4.2 Profit Side: Upstream Oil and Gas Exploration Benefits, while Mid - and Down - stream Industries Show Differentiated Performance - During the 2022 Russia - Ukraine conflict, industries with significantly expanded gross profit margins in A - shares were mainly in three areas: direct beneficiaries (upstream oil and gas exploration, oil transportation); indirect beneficiaries (coal industry chain); and downstream industries with rigid demand and smooth cost transfer (some fine chemicals). On the contrary, some mid - and down - stream industries with high sensitivity to crude oil prices experienced gross profit margin contraction due to difficult cost transfer [72][73][74].