能源日报-20260324

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [3] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [3] - Asphalt: ★★★ [3] Core Views - The short-term oil price has a high risk of two-way fluctuations, and the long-term core variable lies in whether the Strait of Hormuz can remain open [1] - It is expected that fuel oil will follow crude oil, showing an operating pattern of strong support below, being easily disturbed by news, and wide fluctuations [2] - The fundamentals of asphalt have marginal improvement expectations, and the BU price trend will still follow the oil price, but the downside space is expected to be limited [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, and the oil price initially strengthened but then significantly pulled back. The gap between alternative pipeline capacity and normal shipping volume in the strait is still huge, and the release of strategic oil reserves by IEA member countries is only an emergency buffer [1] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - In the high-sulfur aspect, the supply gap in the Middle East cannot be fully hedged, and with the approaching of the summer power generation peak, more fuel oil is needed to fill the LNG supply gap. In the low-sulfur aspect, supply from Kuwait has decreased due to war, and other overseas refineries have also reduced production. Domestic production has decreased due to raw material issues, and the component end continuously supports the low-sulfur trend [2] Asphalt - Domestic refining enterprises are worried about future imported raw materials, some refineries have started or plan to reduce device capacity utilization, and asphalt supply has correspondingly shrunk. The asphalt production plan for March has been revised down, and the refinery production schedule for April has further declined to an absolute low in the same period in recent years. The sample refinery shipment volume has significantly declined both year-on-year and month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year decline has further expanded. Refinery inventory has decreased month-on-month, and social inventory has turned negative year-on-year, with the overall commercial inventory level being low [2]