当前经济与政策思考：看多中国经济的核心理由：内部求稳与外部不稳（美伊冲突背后的地缘政治格局）

Internal Stability - The demand for stability in China can be traced back to the "20th National Congress" in 2022, which emphasized the coexistence of strategic opportunities and risks in development[3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" indicated a shift in the assessment of the external environment, moving from a "strategic opportunity period" to a phase characterized by increased uncertainty and challenges[7] - The core task of economic work is to ensure stability, as highlighted in recent meetings, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations[6] External Instability - Since 2025, geopolitical events have been frequent, categorized into "hot wars" and "non-military manifestations of geopolitical conflict" across various regions including South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Americas, and Africa[12] - The geopolitical landscape is influenced by multiple factors, including the failure of global governance systems, collisions of major power intentions, and the rightward shift in domestic politics, which reduces geopolitical stability[18] - The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict is viewed as part of a broader pattern of major power competition, with implications for global energy flow and strategic control[24] Economic Outlook for China - The internal demand for stability and the external geopolitical landscape provide a foundation for a bullish outlook on the Chinese economy[25] - The perspective on China's economy should shift from absolute to relative comparisons, focusing on stability as a growth premium amid global geopolitical turmoil[26] - There is a need to transition from a domestic focus to a global perspective, considering the global rebalancing of capital and trade in light of geopolitical dynamics[26] - Emphasis should be placed on self-reliance and technological advancement, particularly in overcoming critical technology bottlenecks while promoting widespread technological application[26] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include policy risks, geopolitical risks, and the possibility of outdated or unupdated information in the research report[27]