国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: Near - end trading shows marginal improvement, and prices are firm [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][8]. - Ferrosilicon: Affected by sector sentiment, it will have wide - range fluctuations [2][11]. - Silicomanganese: Disturbed by market information, intraday fluctuations will intensify [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal: Due to the fermentation of market sentiment, both will have wide - range fluctuations [2][14]. - Steam coal: The sentiment is strong, and port transactions are moving upward [2][18]. - Logs: Demand is recovering, and prices are rising [2][20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The closing price of I2605 was 824.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton (0.61%). The open interest increased by 3,958 to 445,891 hands. Among the spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) rose 3.0 yuan/ton to 960.0 yuan/ton [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The price increase is driven by cost and inventory structural contradictions, including rising energy costs, low available port inventory, and restricted deliverable goods. The GDP growth target in the 2026 government work report was adjusted to 4.5% - 5.0%, and the scale of policy - based financial instruments was increased. The daily average iron - making output of 247 steel enterprises was 228.18 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.95 tons [4][5]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,145 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.10%); the closing price of HC2605 was not clearly stated. In terms of spot prices, the prices in some regions changed slightly. For example, the price of rebar in Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,240 yuan/ton [8]. - Macro and Industry News: In early March 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased. The daily output of steel products decreased. The real estate investment from January to February decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, while the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The import and export of steel and iron ore also changed [9][10]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2605 was 6,100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the closing price of silicomanganese 2605 was 6,480 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan. Spot prices generally increased, and the basis and spread also changed [11]. - Macro and Industry News: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions increased on March 24. Some silicon - iron furnaces were restarted. Some enterprises set the purchase price. There are news that manganese - alloy plants will start production cuts on April 1 [11][13]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,249.5 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 3.1%); the closing price of J2605 was 1,798 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan (- 2.7%). Spot prices of some coal types increased, and the basis and spread changed [14]. - Macro and Industry News: On March 24, the CCI metallurgical coal index increased. The coking coal online auction had no unsold items, with an average premium of 94.64 yuan/ton, and coal prices generally rose [14]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral trend [17]. Steam Coal - Fundamental Data: The prices of steam coal in production areas, ports, and overseas markets changed. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie steam coal in Shanxi Datong increased by 10 yuan/ton to 593.0 yuan/ton [18]. - Macro and Industry News: On March 24, the market sentiment in northern ports was positive, but there were differences in views on the future market. The national raw coal output from January to February decreased slightly by 0.3% year - on - year [19]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity based on the northern port steam coal spot price is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [19]. Logs - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of some log varieties also changed, such as the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market increased by 1.3% [20]. - Macro and Industry News: The demand for logs recovered, the port inventory decreased, and the prices rebounded. The GDP growth target in the 2026 government work report was adjusted, and the scale of policy - based financial instruments was increased [22]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of logs is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [23].