LLDPE：开工继续下滑，成本传导不畅；PP：C3原料波动较大，现货跟涨偏慢

Report Overview - The report focuses on the fundamentals and market conditions of LLDPE and PP in the polyolefin industry [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE,开工 continues to decline, cost transmission is poor, and raw material prices are expected to be strong due to geopolitical factors, while supply and demand factors such as production and inventory need attention [1][2] - For PP, C3 raw material prices fluctuate greatly, spot price increases are slow, cost support is strong, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH devices under deep - loss PDH profits [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - LLDPE (L2605): The closing price yesterday was 8918, with a daily decline of 6.35%, trading volume of 1530549, and a decrease of 58310 in positions. The 05 - contract basis was - 318 (compared to - 573 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 182 (compared to 211 the previous day). Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 8600, 8700, and 8900 yuan/ton respectively, all lower than the previous day [1] - PP (PP2605): The closing price yesterday was 9114, with a daily decline of 6.93%, trading volume of 1745058, and a decrease of 59592 in positions. The 05 - contract basis was - 114 (compared to - 493 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 334 (compared to 499 the previous day). Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 9000, 9000, and 9300 yuan/ton respectively, all lower than the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot News - LLDPE: PE Exxon LL and Tarim HD are under maintenance, and the operating rate has dropped to 76% (a 10% drop compared to early March), with the standard product production ratio remaining low. Foreign naphtha plants have announced maintenance plans from late March to April, and the PE operating rate may drop to around 70% in the future [1] - PP: Zhejiang Petrochemical's second - line PP is under maintenance, and the PP operating rate has dropped to 70%. There are still many planned PDH maintenance, and PDH profits have reached a new low. The basis remains weak, and cost transmission is poor [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - LLDPE: Geopolitical tensions are escalating, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is stagnant, and raw materials such as naphtha are expected to be strong, increasing PE costs. After the festival, the demand for mulch film is in line with the season, and the operating rate of packaging film has rebounded, but cost transmission takes time. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang has started mass production, and the planned maintenance and production reduction in March are increasing, the standard product production ratio is decreasing, and inventory is starting to be depleted [2] - PP: C3 is affected by supply disturbances from Saudi Arabia and Iran, with strong cost support, and PDH maintenance remains high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract on the supply side, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies. On the demand side, downstream enterprises have resumed work intensively, and demand has improved month - on - month. PDH profits remain low, and multiple PDH plants in South China have not resumed operation after maintenance. Under deep - loss PDH profits, attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH devices [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - LLDPE trend intensity: 1; PP trend intensity: 1 [4]