宏观分析与商品研判

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The global trend is towards fiscal expansion, with the US having a tax - cut bill and a bipartisan consensus on fiscal deficit, Europe entering a fiscal expansion cycle, Japan implementing a loose fiscal policy with 27% high - level people's livelihood expenditure, and China stating that "fiscal intensity will only increase" [7][8] - The Fed will end its balance - sheet reduction on December 1st, with current monthly reductions of $500 million in US Treasuries and $3.5 billion in MBS; Europe is essentially expanding its balance sheet, and China is implementing a moderately loose monetary policy [9] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to global "stagflation", and the stock market may be overly optimistic [14] - Capital market stability depends on the easing of the US - Iran conflict, which requires the softening of US and Iranian attitudes and a "major exchange" among major powers, but this is difficult to achieve [23] - The dollar's fate may be tied to the Strait of Hormuz, likely resulting in a short - term positive and long - term negative outcome [28] - The RMB's strength reflects China's risk - resistance ability, with inflation repair, energy independence, and strong exports contributing to it [29][31] - The fundamentals of non - ferrous metals are weak in the near term but strong in the long term, and the next liquidity node is April 1st when the Fed lowers the eSLR, theoretically releasing $3.2 trillion [32] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last June's Performance of Major Asset Classes - Gold and stocks are relatively synchronous due to the liquidity logic, except in September last year when the US government - shutdown expectation was related to fiscal and US dollar credit; stocks and bonds show a seesaw effect, with intermittent co - movement from November to January due to the liquidity logic; gold and stocks were under pressure in early February (due to the new Fed chair) and March (due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, also a liquidity logic) [5][6] 2. Benchmark Scenario: Global Fiscal Stimulus - The US has a tax - cut bill and a bipartisan consensus on fiscal deficit; Europe enters a fiscal expansion cycle and relaxes military - expenditure deficit constraints; Japan has a loose fiscal policy with high people's livelihood expenditure; China emphasizes that "fiscal intensity will only increase" [7][8] 3. Benchmark Scenario: Decline in Monetary Price and Expansion in Quantity - The Fed will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1st, currently reducing $500 million in US Treasuries and $3.5 billion in MBS monthly; Europe is expanding its balance sheet, and China has a moderately loose policy [9] 4. Wash Shock - There was a one - time reaction at the end of January, but due to many restrictions on balance - sheet reduction, it is not considered a benchmark scenario [12] 5. Strait of Hormuz Closure - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to global "stagflation", and the stock market may be overly optimistic. The current daily supply gap of crude oil is about 11 million barrels per day, and after considering releases from various sources, there is still a 7% gap [14][16] 6. Historical Lessons - The end of the Iran - Iraq War involved multiple factors such as UN resolutions, military actions, and super - power intervention. During the Iran - Iraq War, the Strait of Hormuz was not blocked for a long time, and after US and international - community intervention, it was reopened [20][21] 7. Market Outlook - Capital market stability requires the easing of the US - Iran conflict, which is difficult to achieve. Seeking NATO's military force to open the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to quell the conflict [23][25] 8. Currency Analysis - The US dollar's safe - haven property is prominent, and the current market liquidity is more tense, which supports the US dollar. However, the dollar's fate may be tied to the Strait of Hormuz, likely resulting in a short - term positive and long - term negative outcome. The RMB shows strength, and the main Asia - Pacific currencies are clearly differentiated, with the Australian dollar, Malaysian ringgit, and RMB appreciating [27][28][29] 9. Non - Ferrous Metals Outlook - The fundamentals of non - ferrous metals are weak in the near term but strong in the long term. The next liquidity node is April 1st when the Fed lowers the eSLR from 5 - 6% to 3 - 4.5%, theoretically releasing $3.2 trillion [32]