观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical tensions have eased [2][4]. - Silver: It has fallen off the oscillation platform [2][4]. - Copper: The downward adjustment of the US dollar supports the price [2][8]. - Zinc: It is in a sideways oscillation [2][11]. - Lead: The decrease in inventory supports the price [2][14]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment [2][17]. - Aluminum: The volatility has converged; Alumina: It is in a weak oscillation; Casting aluminum alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Platinum: The market sentiment has eased; Palladium: It has slightly recovered [2][23]. - Nickel: There are contradictions and differences between the macro and the mine end, and the short - term long - short game has intensified; Stainless steel: Overseas macro factors exert pressure, while the actual cost provides support [2][28]. 3. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: The prices of gold and silver showed significant changes. For example, the Shanghai gold 2602 contract closed at 940.00 with a daily decline of 9.55%, and the Shanghai silver 2602 contract closed at 15498 with a daily decline of 12.30%. The trading volume and positions of gold and silver futures also had corresponding changes [4]. - ETF and Inventory: The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 4, and the SLV silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 265. The inventory of Shanghai gold decreased by 99 kg, and the inventory of Comex silver decreased by 1,989,464 ounces [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The US stock market rose, crude oil fell, and spot gold had a nine - day consecutive decline. There were also developments in the US - Iran dialogue and geopolitical situations [4][6][7]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 94,030 with a daily increase of 2.10%. The trading volume and positions of copper futures changed, with the Shanghai copper index trading volume decreasing by 63,541 [8]. - Inventory and Premium: The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 11,405 tons, and the inventory of LME copper increased by 11,800 tons. The LME copper premium had a change of 5.74 [8]. - Macro and Industry News: There were developments in the US - Iran negotiation, and the US and euro - zone PMI data changed. Zambia aimed to triple copper production by 2031, and some copper mines had operational changes [8][10]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22975 with a daily increase of 0.77%. The trading volume and positions of zinc futures changed, with the Shanghai zinc main contract trading volume increasing by 13509 [11]. - News: The US intended to have a one - month cease - fire to discuss a 15 - point agreement with Iran, and there were changes in the US stock market and other financial markets [12]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16420 with a daily increase of 0.15%. The trading volume and positions of lead futures changed, with the Shanghai lead main contract trading volume decreasing by 14155 [14]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures decreased by 3456 tons, and the inventory of LME lead decreased by 725 tons [14]. - News: There were developments in the US - Iran negotiation and changes in the PMI data of the US and euro - zone [15]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 347,970 with a daily increase of 2.94%. The trading volume and positions of tin futures changed, with the Shanghai tin main contract trading volume decreasing by 18,833 [18]. - Inventory and Premium: The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 426 tons, and the LME tin premium changed by - 39 [18]. - Macro and Industry News: There were diplomatic and energy - related news, such as the phone call between Wang Yi and the Iranian foreign minister [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The prices and trading volumes of aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy futures had corresponding changes. For example, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24020, and the Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 3041 [21]. - Inventory and Premium: The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and LME aluminum ingots changed, and there were changes in premiums such as the Shanghai保税区Premium [21]. - News: There were developments in the US - Iran negotiation, and Iran charged passage fees for some ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz [22]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot showed increases. For example, the platinum futures 2606 contract closed at 487.40 with a 6.48% increase [24]. - ETF and Inventory: The platinum ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) decreased by 14,819 ounces, and the palladium ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) decreased by 22,274 ounces [24]. - Macro and Industry News: There were news about energy emergencies, political support rates, and gold - related policies [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 133,480, and the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,290. The trading volumes and positions of nickel and stainless steel futures changed [28]. - Industry News: There were developments in the nickel industry, such as the planned revision of the nickel ore benchmark price formula in Indonesia, the restart of a nickel mine in Guatemala, and some mine accidents and production quota changes [28][29][31].