观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, etc. It indicates that most commodities are in a state of wide - range oscillation, high - level oscillation, or interval operation, and the market is significantly affected by geopolitical factors [2]. - For example, short - term price fluctuations of some commodities are affected by the decline of international night - market energy prices, but the domestic fundamentals provide support for the downside space [10][33][36]. - The impact of geopolitical conflicts on the supply and demand of commodities is a key factor, such as the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on the shipping of raw materials and the production and export of products [13][71]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rubber - Market Trend: Wide - range oscillation [2][4] - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the rubber main contract increased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and some price differences changed [4]. - Industry News: From January to February 2026, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires increased year - on - year, but the export price decreased. The export regions were significantly differentiated, with a shift towards emerging markets. It is expected that the export volume of all - steel tires in March will decline [5][6][7]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Trend: Wide - range oscillation due to repeated geopolitical situations [2][8] - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber main contract decreased, the trading volume increased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [8]. - Industry News: As of March 18, 2026, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased. It is expected that the price of synthetic rubber will oscillate widely in the short term [8][10]. LLDPE and PP - Market Trend: LLDPE's start - up continues to decline, and cost transmission is not smooth; PP's C3 raw materials fluctuate greatly, and the spot price follows the increase slowly [2][12] - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures decreased, the trading volume and open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [12]. - Market Analysis: Geopolitical factors lead to the strengthening of raw materials, and the cost of LLDPE increases. The demand for LLDPE's post - holiday mulch film is in line with the season, and the start - up of packaging film has recovered, but cost transmission takes time. For PP, the cost is strongly supported, and the demand has improved, but the PDH profit is at a low level [13]. Caustic Soda - Market Trend: Wide - range oscillation [2][16] - Fundamental Data: The 05 - contract futures price, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32 - alkali in Shandong, and the basis are provided [16]. - Market Analysis: The caustic soda futures premium is large, and the 04 - contract is about to be delivered, which will suppress the market. In the long - term, the situation in the Middle East will affect the supply and demand of caustic soda. The market may oscillate widely in the short term [18]. Pulp - Market Trend: Oscillatory operation [2][21] - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the pulp main contract increased during the day and decreased at night, the trading volume increased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [23]. - Industry News: The pulp futures price increased slightly, but the market trading was light, and the downstream paper mills' purchasing enthusiasm was not high. The price of household paper is expected to be stable [24][25]. Glass - Market Trend: The price of the original sheet is stable [26] - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the glass futures decreased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [27]. - Market News: The price of the domestic float glass market shows a trend of falling in the north and rising in the south, but the overall fluctuation range is limited, and the market trading is average [27]. Methanol - Market Trend: Wide - range oscillation [2][29] - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the methanol main contract decreased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [30]. - Market News: The methanol spot price index increased, and the port inventory decreased. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate widely in the short term [32][33]. Urea - Market Trend: Interval operation [2][35] - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the urea main contract decreased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [36]. - Industry News: As of March 18, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased. It is expected that the urea price will operate within an interval in the short term [36][38]. Styrene - Market Trend: High - level oscillation [2][39] - Fundamental Data: The prices of styrene futures contracts decreased, and the price differences and profits changed [39]. - Market News: Pure benzene and styrene are in high - level oscillation. The conflict has affected the supply and demand of pure benzene and styrene, and the port inventory may decrease [40]. Soda Ash - Market Trend: The spot market changes little [2][45] - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the soda ash futures increased slightly, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [47]. - Market News: The domestic soda ash market is stable and oscillating, the enterprise equipment is operating stably, the downstream demand is average, and the price is expected to be stable [47]. LPG and Propylene - Market Trend: LPG has geopolitical risks and frequent supply disturbances; propylene's supply is expected to decrease due to geopolitical impacts on the cost side [2][49] - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of LPG and propylene futures decreased, the trading volume and open interest changed, and the spot prices and price differences changed [49]. - Market News: The prices of CP paper goods increased, and there are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [54][55]. PVC - Market Trend: Wide - range oscillation [2][57] - Fundamental Data: The 05 - contract futures price, the spot price in East China, the basis, and the 5 - 9 month spread are provided [57]. - Market Analysis: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East affects the supply of PVC, and the domestic ethylene - based PVC production has decreased. The short - term basis converges, and the market is supported in the long - term [57]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Market Trend: Fuel oil continues to be weak, and short - term fluctuations continue to increase; low - sulfur fuel oil drops significantly, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to decline [2][59] - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures decreased, the trading volume and open interest changed, and the spot prices and price differences changed [59]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Market Trend: The oscillation center may move down, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [2][61] - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of container shipping index futures contracts changed, and the freight rates and shipping schedules of different carriers are provided [61][67]. - Market Analysis: The market is affected by geopolitical emotions. The supply and demand of shipping capacity and the change of freight rates are analyzed, and the short - term and long - term trends of the market are predicted [71][72][75]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Market Trend: High - level fluctuations due to repeated geopolitical situations [2][78] - Fundamental Data: The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures contracts decreased, and the basis, trading volume, open interest, and other data changed [78]. - Market News: The short - fiber futures price dropped, the spot price was stable or slightly decreased, and the sales rate was 52%. The bottle - chip factory price was mostly decreased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [78][79]. Pure Benzene - Market Trend: High - level oscillation [2][81] - Fundamental Data: The prices of pure benzene futures contracts decreased, and the price differences and inventory data changed [81]. - Market News: The pure benzene port inventory decreased, and the market trading was weak [82][83].