国新国证期货早报-20260325

Group 1: Stock Index Futures - On March 24, A-share's three major indexes rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.78% to 3881.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43% to 13536.56 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.50% to 3251.55 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2096.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 352.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index fluctuated widely on March 24, closing at 4474.72, a month-on-month increase of 56.73 [2] Group 2: Coke and Coking Coal - On March 24, the coke weighted index adjusted and consolidated, closing at 1823.0, a month-on-month decrease of 13.2 [2] - On March 24, the coking coal weighted index fluctuated within a narrow range, closing at 1297.2 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 5.7 [3] - The spot price of coke at ports increased. The mainstream coke enterprises proposed to raise the coke price by 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The steel mills' profitability was fair, and the iron water output continued to increase, leading to an increase in the procurement enthusiasm for coke [4] - The price of coking coal in some areas increased. The production of main coal-producing areas remained stable, and the market trading activity increased. The terminal steel demand improved, and the coke enterprises proposed a price increase [4] Group 3: Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated downward on March 24. The uncertainty of short - term crude oil price limited the decline space [4] - The Asia - Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center issued an El Niño warning, indicating that most parts of the world may enter a warming stage in the next few months [4] Group 4: Rubber - Due to the high price of crude oil, the price of synthetic rubber has risen significantly, which may prompt manufacturers to choose natural rubber as a substitute. The Shanghai rubber fluctuated higher on March 24. The expected slowdown of global economic growth may restrict rubber demand [5] - As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8000 tons, an increase of 1.18% [5] Group 5: Soybean Meal - On March 24, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1154 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.9%. As of March 31, the soybean harvest in Brazil was 67.7% complete, behind last year's 76.4%. The market is concerned about the US Department of Agriculture's sowing intention report [5] - On March 24, the domestic soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 2961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.53%. After the relaxation of the inspection of imported Brazilian soybeans, the supply shortage of soybean meal is expected to ease [5] Group 6: Live Pigs - On March 24, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 10045 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65%. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs increased, and the market supply pattern was loose. The demand was in the off - season, and the overall supply - demand pattern was supply - strong and demand - weak [5] Group 7: Palm Oil - On March 24, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fluctuated widely, and the main contract P2605 closed with a small negative line. The price decreased by 3.00% compared with the previous trading day [5] - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 20 was 889,128 tons, a 61.02% increase compared with the same period last month [5] Group 8: Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main CU2605 contract rebounded and fluctuated, closing at 94030 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.25%. The spot price increased, but the discount pattern remained unchanged. The price was supported by factors such as low domestic inventory, but the downstream demand did not show obvious improvement [5] Group 9: Cotton - On the night of March 24, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15210 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 30 lots compared with the previous trading day. The "Golden March and Silver April" textile peak season this year exceeded market expectations [6] Group 10: Iron Ore - On March 24, the iron ore 2605 main contract fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.55%, closing at 824 yuan. The shipping and arrival volume of iron ore increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore price was in a fluctuating trend in the short term [6] Group 11: Asphalt - On March 24, the asphalt 2606 main contract fluctuated and declined, with a decline of 3.66%, closing at 4401 yuan. The raw material supply was unstable, the refinery production plan in April decreased, and the downstream demand started slowly. The asphalt price may follow the oil price in the short term [6] Group 12: Logs - On March 24, the log 2605 main contract opened at 820, with a minimum of 818, a maximum of 825, and closed at 823, with an increase of 224 lots in positions [6] - The spot price of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan per cubic meter. Future attention should be paid to factors such as spot price, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [7] Group 13: Steel - On March 24, rb2605 closed at 3145 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3324 yuan/ton. The international oil price dropped, but the Middle East situation remained complex. The steel market supply and demand increased, and the cost support moved up. The steel price may fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [7] Group 14: Alumina - On March 24, ao2605 closed at 3014 yuan/ton. The Middle East conflict pushed up energy costs, and the demand for industrial metals was under pressure. In the short term, the alumina price will maintain a strong - side fluctuation, but in the long term, the new production capacity will suppress the price [7] Group 15: Shanghai Aluminum - On March 24, al2605 closed at 23625 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum price was supported by multiple factors. The Middle East situation affected the aluminum price through price linkage, cost conduction, and market sentiment. The domestic aluminum price had a strong upward drive [8]