工业硅：弱势格局；多晶硅：下跌回落为主

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Weak pattern [1] - Polysilicon: Mainly in a downward trend [2] 2. Core Views - The industrial silicon market shows a weak situation, and the polysilicon market is mainly experiencing a downward trend [1][2] - Turkey's photovoltaic industry has significant growth momentum, with its cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reaching 25827MW by the end of January 2026, and the proportion of photovoltaic installed capacity in the total installed capacity rising to 20.9% [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: Si2605 closing price is 8,605 yuan/ton, with changes of -30 (T - 1), -45 (T - 5), and -270 (T - 22); PS2605 closing price is 35,730 yuan/ton, with a T - 1 change of 295 and a T - 5 change of -5,940. There are also corresponding changes in trading volumes and open interests [2] - Basis and Price: Industrial silicon has different spot premiums and discounts for different standards, and polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock price is 42,500 yuan/ton, with a T - 1 change of -750, a T - 5 change of -3000, and a T - 22 change of -10750 [2] - Profit: Silicon factory profits for different standards in Xinjiang and Yunnan are negative, and polysilicon enterprise profits are -1.8 yuan/kg, with a T - 1 change of -0.4, a T - 5 change of -2.6, and a T - 22 change of -10.3 [2] - Inventory: Industrial silicon social inventory is 55.3 million tons, enterprise inventory is 19.8 million tons, and industry inventory is 75.1 million tons; polysilicon factory inventory is 34.4 million tons [2] - Raw Material Costs: Prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions have little change [2] - Prices and Profits in Related Industries: In the polysilicon (photovoltaic), organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries, there are corresponding changes in prices and profits [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Turkey's photovoltaic cumulative installed capacity reached 25827MW by the end of January 2026, and multiple photovoltaic projects were connected to the grid in January, including the first large - scale photovoltaic energy storage integration project [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; polysilicon trend intensity: -1 [4]