纸浆：震荡运行20260325

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The overall market demand remains weak and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. The high - level pressure of port inventory persists, and industry players mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude. Attention should be paid to changes in downstream paper mills' procurement willingness and foreign market quotation dynamics [4]. - In the short term, the price of the household paper market is expected to stabilize. The current situation is one of oversupply, and key factors to watch are changes in raw material pulp prices and the operation of major paper mills' equipment [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The daily closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,210 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan from the previous day; the night - session closing price was 5,176 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan. The trading volume was 378,624 lots, an increase of 51,683 lots. The open interest of the 05 contract was 196,807 lots, a decrease of 44,855 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 183,562 tons, an increase of 1,487 tons. The net position of the top 20 members was - 33,044 lots, a decrease of 388 lots [3]. - Spread Data: The basis of "Yinxing - futures main contract" was 40, an increase of 28; the basis of "Jinyu - futures main contract (non - standard)" was - 610, a decrease of 22. The month - spread of SP05 - SP07 was - 50, an increase of 2 [3]. - Spot Market: The domestic prices of coniferous pulp such as Beimu, Kailipu, Shipai, Yueliang, Yinxing, and Ezhen were in the range of 5,100 - 5,500 yuan/ton; the domestic prices of broad - leaf pulp such as Jinse, Mingxing, Xiaochi, and Buju were in the range of 4,500 - 4,600 yuan/ton; the domestic price of chemical mechanical pulp (Kunhe) was 3,800 yuan/ton; the domestic price of natural pulp (Jinxing) was 4,800 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Industry News - The pulp futures market rose slightly yesterday, with the main contract closing at 5,210 yuan/ton, a 0.5% increase, driving a slight increase in the spot price of coniferous pulp. However, the actual market trading was rather light. Downstream paper mills had low procurement enthusiasm due to average profits, and some enterprises adopted a price - pressing strategy, with limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials. The trend of broad - leaf pulp was relatively stable [4]. - The price of the household paper market was mainly in the range of consolidation, with little change in market trading activity. The news from major paper enterprises was relatively quiet. The raw material pulp market was oscillating and adjusting, and the price of broad - leaf pulp remained stable, providing limited support for the price of household paper. The terminal demand for household paper showed no obvious signs of improvement, maintaining rigid procurement. Some paper enterprises had poor sales performance, and the overall industry operating level changed little [5].