橡胶：宽幅震荡20260325

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The rubber market shows a wide - range oscillation trend, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral stance [1]. The export of truck and bus tires has a mixed situation. In 2026, the cumulative export volume from January to February increased, but the export均价 decreased. The export regions are differentiated, with emerging markets growing and mature markets under pressure. The expected export volume of all - steel tires in March 2026 will decline significantly year - on - year [1][2][3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The daily - session closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,225 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan from the previous day; the night - session closing price was 16,315 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan. The trading volume was 299,408 lots, a decrease of 26,974 lots; the holding volume of the 05 contract was 111,774 lots, a decrease of 5,117 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 125,410 tons, a decrease of 30 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members was 15,231 lots, a decrease of 2,309 lots [1]. - Spread Data: The basis of the spot - futures main contract was - 125, an increase of 20; the basis of the mixed - futures main contract was - 845, an increase of 70; the monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 was - 10, a decrease of 40 [1]. - Spot Market: The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,510 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars; the STR20 was 2,025 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars; the SMR20 was 2,015 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars; the SIR20 was 1,930 US dollars/ton, up 45 US dollars. The prices of substitutes like Qilu styrene - butadiene and Qilu cis - butadiene also increased. In the Qingdao market, the prices of imported Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber increased by 10 US dollars, and the African 10 increased by 5 US dollars [1]. 2. Industry News - From January to February 2026, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 73.01 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.07%. In February 2026, the export均价 of truck and bus tires was 2,079.47 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.54% [2][3]. - The export regions of truck and bus tires in China from January to February 2026 were significantly differentiated. Africa had the most prominent export growth, with a year - on - year increase of 42.31%. Southeast Asia, Oceania, and other regions also had positive growth. However, the Middle East and North America had year - on - year declines of 3.31% and 5.88% respectively [3]. - It is expected that the export volume of all - steel tires in China in March 2026 will be around 35 tons, showing a significant year - on - year decline. The export growth is restricted by multiple internal and external factors, such as the Middle East geopolitical conflict, trade barriers, and the shift of enterprise production capacity to the domestic market [4].