碳酸锂：关注市场情绪面因素

1. Report Date and Title - The report is dated March 25, 2026, titled "Lithium Carbonate: Pay Attention to Market Sentiment Factors" [1] 2. Analysts - The analysts are Shao Wanyi (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0015722, email: shaowanyi@gtht.com) and Zhang Hang (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0018008, email: zhanghang2@gtht.com) [2] 3. Fundamental Data of Lithium Carbonate 3.1 Futures Contracts - For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 152,940, with a change of 3,900 compared to T - 1, -2,380 compared to T - 5, -10,060 compared to T - 10, 3,520 compared to T - 22, and 46,780 compared to T - 66. The trading volume is 231,071, with a change of 2,893 compared to T - 1, 57,632 compared to T - 5, 4,798 compared to T - 10, -73,727 compared to T - 22, and -782,845 compared to T - 66. The open interest is 260,696, with a change of -8,781 compared to T - 1, -48,146 compared to T - 5, -71,821 compared to T - 10, -93,279 compared to T - 22, and -412,015 compared to T - 66 [3] - For the 2607 contract, the closing price is 152,300, with a change of 4,000 compared to T - 1, -2,540 compared to T - 5, -10,400 compared to T - 10, 2,900 compared to T - 22, and 45,940 compared to T - 66. The trading volume is 26,087, with a change of -4,561 compared to T - 1, 6,402 compared to T - 5, -3,917 compared to T - 10, -8,875 compared to T - 22, and -77,871 compared to T - 66. The open interest is 105,924, with a change of 2,766 compared to T - 1, 6,285 compared to T - 5, 10,677 compared to T - 10, 15,625 compared to T - 22, and 48,718 compared to T - 66 [3] 3.2 Other Data - The warehouse receipt volume is 32,078, with a change of -1,459 compared to T - 1, -4,387 compared to T - 5, -4,941 compared to T - 10, -5,204 compared to T - 22, and 16,442 compared to T - 66 [3] - The basis data shows that the difference between spot and 2605 is -5,440, with a change of -2,900 compared to T - 1, -8,120 compared to T - 5, -940 compared to T - 10, 1,480 compared to T - 22, and 3,170 compared to T - 66; the difference between spot and 2607 is -4,800, with a change of -3,000 compared to T - 1, -7,960 compared to T - 5, -600 compared to T - 10, 2,100 compared to T - 22, and 4,010 compared to T - 66; the difference between 2605 and 2607 is 640, with a change of -100 compared to T - 1, 160 compared to T - 5, 340 compared to T - 10, 620 compared to T - 22, and 840 compared to T - 66; the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 3,000, with a change of 0 compared to T - 1, -500 compared to T - 5, -250 compared to T - 10, -500 compared to T - 22, and 400 compared to T - 66; the difference between spot and CIF is 11,812, with a change of 1,019 compared to T - 1, -8,434 compared to T - 5, -9,595 compared to T - 10, -6,459 compared to T - 22, and -5,953 compared to T - 66 [3] - The raw material prices include lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) at 2,072, with a change of 44 compared to T - 1, -113 compared to T - 5, -141 compared to T - 10, 72 compared to T - 22, and 746 compared to T - 66; lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) at 4,465, with a change of 65 compared to T - 1, -495 compared to T - 5, -735 compared to T - 10, -110 compared to T - 22, and 1,640 compared to T - 66 [3] - The lithium salt prices are as follows: battery - grade lithium carbonate at 147,500, with a change of 1,000 compared to T - 1, -10,500 compared to T - 5, -11,000 compared to T - 10, 5,000 compared to T - 22, and 49,950 compared to T - 66; battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) at 19,700, with a change of 50 compared to T - 1, -300 compared to T - 5, -250 compared to T - 10, 1,700 compared to T - 22, and 8,370 compared to T - 66; industrial - grade lithium carbonate at 144,500, with a change of 1,000 compared to T - 1, -10,000 compared to T - 5, -10,750 compared to T - 10, 5,500 compared to T - 22, and 49,550 compared to T - 66; battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) at 145,500, with a change of 500 compared to T - 1, -11,000 compared to T - 5, -13,500 compared to T - 10, 2,500 compared to T - 22, and 54,900 compared to T - 66; battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF) at 18,200, with a change of 100 compared to T - 1, -300 compared to T - 5, -250 compared to T - 10, 900 compared to T - 22, and 7,720 compared to T - 66 [3] - The prices of related products in the industry chain are: lithium iron phosphate (power - type) at 52,925, with a change of 245 compared to T - 1, -2,550 compared to T - 5, -2,670 compared to T - 10, 1,215 compared to T - 22, and 12,665 compared to T - 66; lithium iron phosphate (mid - to high - end energy - storage type) at 51,385, with a change of 240 compared to T - 1, -2,540 compared to T - 5, -2,660 compared to T - 10, 1,210 compared to T - 22, and 12,685 compared to T - 66; lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy - storage type) at 47,890, with a change of 240 compared to T - 1, -2,460 compared to T - 5, -2,580 compared to T - 10, 1,170 compared to T - 22, and 12,510 compared to T - 66; ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) at 189,550, with a change of 300 compared to T - 1, -3,950 compared to T - 5, -2,450 compared to T - 10, 4,550 compared to T - 22, and 30,600 compared to T - 66; ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) at 186,750, with a change of 500 compared to T - 1, -2,900 compared to T - 5, -300 compared to T - 10, 7,600 compared to T - 22, and 37,500 compared to T - 66; ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) at 208,750, with a change of 250 compared to T - 1, -3,550 compared to T - 5, -2,750 compared to T - 10, 8,300 compared to T - 22, and 45,450 compared to T - 66; lithium hexafluorophosphate at 108,000, with a change of 0 compared to T - 1, -3,000 compared to T - 5, -6,000 compared to T - 10, -17,000 compared to T - 22, and -62,500 compared to T - 66; electrolyte (for ternary power) at 31,250, with a change of 0 compared to T - 1, 0 compared to T - 5, 0 compared to T - 10, -1,500 compared to T - 22, and -5,500 compared to T - 66; electrolyte (for lithium iron phosphate) at 29,500, with a change of 0 compared to T - 1, 0 compared to T - 5, 0 compared to T - 10, -1,500 compared to T - 22, and -5,750 compared to T - 66 [3] 4. Macro and Industry News 4.1 China - Singapore Business Meeting - On March 23, Ling Ji, Vice Minister of Commerce and Deputy Representative for International Trade Negotiations, met with Jeremy Weir, Chairman of Trafigura Group. Ling Ji stated that despite the complex international situation, the Chinese economy shows strong resilience and vitality and contributes to global economic stability. During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, China will support the development of the commodity circulation system and accelerate the construction of a new energy system, providing new opportunities for foreign - funded enterprises like Trafigura. Jeremy Weir said China is an important market for Trafigura, and the group highly appreciates China's opening - up measures and forward - looking layout in the new energy field, and will deepen cooperation with China to stabilize the global industrial and supply chains [4][5] 4.2 Company Winning Bid - Tobang Co., Ltd. announced that it received a winning bid notice from China Mobile Communications Co., Ltd. for the "Centralized Procurement Project of Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries for Telecommunications from 2026 to 2028". The winning bid share is 11.46% in Package 1, with a winning bid amount of 189 million yuan (including tax). This cooperation will deepen the supply - chain collaboration, improve delivery efficiency and cost optimization between Tobang and China Mobile, enhance the market competitiveness of Tobang's products in the communication power backup field, and have a positive impact on Tobang's operating income and performance from 2026 to 2028 [5] 5. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, where the trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish, and the strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong [5]