铁矿石：近端交易边际改善，价格坚挺

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The strength of iron ore prices is not driven by supply and demand but by the structural contradictions of cost and inventory, including rising energy costs and freight, low available port inventory, and restricted deliverable products [1] - The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms, with a more realistic GDP growth target and an increased scale of policy - based financial instruments [2] - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises increased by 6950 tons to 2281800 tons [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of I2605 was 824 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.61%), with a position of 445891 hands and an increase of 3958 hands [1] - Spot Price: The prices of imported ores such as Carajás fines (65%), PB (61.5%), Jimbara (61%), and Super Special (56.5%) all increased slightly, while the prices of domestic ores such as Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged [1] - Basis and Spread: The basis of I2605 against Super Special decreased by 2.8 yuan/ton, and against Jimbara decreased by 3.9 yuan/ton. The spread of I2605 - I2609 increased by 1 yuan/ton, while I2609 - I2701 remained unchanged. The spread of Carajás fines - PB increased by 2 yuan/ton, PB - Jimbara remained unchanged, and PB - Super Special decreased by 1 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - The strength of iron ore prices is due to cost and inventory contradictions, including rising energy costs and freight, low available port inventory, and restricted deliverable products [1] - The 2026 government work report aims to stabilize expectations, adjust the structure, prevent risks, and promote reforms, with a more realistic GDP growth target and an increased scale of policy - based financial instruments [2] - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises increased by 6950 tons to 2281800 tons [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3]