交银国际每日晨报-20260325

Group 1: 德琪医药 (6996 HK) - The company is expected to achieve breakeven in 2026, with a projected revenue increase of 15% to 105 million RMB in 2025 and a reduced loss of 239 million RMB [1] - The collaboration with UCB on ATG-201 is anticipated to contribute 80 million USD in recent payments, significantly enhancing performance and achieving breakeven [1][2] - The development of ATG-022 is set to provide multiple catalysts in the next 12 months, with peak sales in the gastric cancer field projected to exceed 5 billion USD [2] Group 2: 药明合联 (2268 HK) - The company recorded strong financial performance in 2025, with revenue and adjusted net profit increasing by 46.7% and 69.9% year-on-year, respectively [4] - The gross margin improved significantly by 5.4 percentage points to 36.0%, with stable operating expense ratios [4] - The company expects revenue growth to exceed 40% in 2026, driven by technical upgrades, capacity expansion, and M-end projects [4][7] Group 3: 科伦博泰生物 (6990 HK) - The company’s revenue for 2025 was 2.06 billion RMB, a 6% year-on-year increase, with confidence in doubling sales of its core product, Lukanosumab, in 2026 [8][9] - Key data releases for Lukanosumab are expected in 2026, with multiple early-stage pipelines progressing steadily [9] - The target price for the company has been adjusted down to 530 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 25.9% [9] Group 4: 华润啤酒 (291 HK) - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to decline by 1.7% to 37.99 billion RMB, with beer business remaining stable while the liquor segment faces a 30.4% drop [10][11] - Beer sales volume and average price are expected to grow by 1.4% and decline by 1.4%, respectively, with a continued trend towards premiumization [10] - The target price remains at 35.90 HKD, corresponding to an 18 times forecasted P/E ratio for 2026 [11] Group 5: 中国电力 (2380 HK) - The company’s profit for 2025 is expected to decline by 13.5% to 2.91 billion RMB, primarily due to lower-than-expected operating profits from wind and solar segments [12] - The company plans to add 6.2 GW of wind/solar capacity in 2025, with conservative installation targets for 2026 [12][13] - A dividend policy is being considered to shift from a fixed ratio to a fixed amount over the next 3-5 years [13]