2026年03月25日申万期货品种策略日报-国债-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. The Shibor short - end varieties mostly declined, and the capital market remained relatively stable. The Fed remained on hold and raised inflation expectations. The Middle East situation was tense, and inflation expectations increased. The US government proposed a 15 - condition conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, and the financial market stabilized. The main economic indicators in the first two months of this year improved significantly, and the national economy started well. The central bank has room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The equity market volatility increased, which supported short - term Treasury bond futures prices. However, the rise in price data and commodity prices pushed up inflation expectations, and the Fed's hawkish stance put pressure on long - term Treasury bond futures prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Price and Volume: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices showed mixed trends. The T2606 contract rose 0.02%. The TS2606 closed at 102.478, down 0.024 or - 0.02%; the TF2606 closed at 105.915, down 0.005 or 0.00%; the T2606 closed at 108.165, up 0.020 or 0.02%; the TL2606 closed at 111.24, up 0.530 or 0.48%. The trading volume of TS2606 was 45045, TF2606 was 66738, T2606 was 78058, and TL2606 was 84841 [2] - IRR: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Domestic Bond Yields: On the previous trading day, the yields of key - term Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The 10Y Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.44bp to 1.83%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 44.53bp [2] - Overseas Bond Yields: On the previous trading day, the 10Y US Treasury bond yield increased by 5bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield decreased by 5bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield decreased by 4bp [2] 3.3 Macro News - Central Bank Operations: On March 24, the central bank conducted 17.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 3.35 billion yuan. On March 25, it will conduct 500 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with a net injection of 50 billion yuan, marking 13 consecutive months of increased roll - overs [3] - Other News: The central bank governor met with the CEO of DBS Group, and DBS will become the second RMB clearing bank in Singapore. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the work related to the relocation of central enterprises to Xiongan New Area. The US government proposed a 15 - condition conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, and Trump said that the US and Iran were close to reaching an agreement [3] 3.4 Industry Information - Shibor: Shibor short - end varieties mostly declined. The overnight variety increased by 0.1BP to 1.318%; the 7 - day variety decreased by 0.5BP to 1.417%; the 14 - day variety decreased by 1.2BP to 1.512%; the 1 - month variety decreased by 0.55BP to 1.504%, reaching a new low since September 2022 [3] - US Treasury Yields: US Treasury yields rose collectively. The 2 - year yield rose 4.32bp to 3.895%, the 3 - year yield rose 3.14bp to 3.896%, the 5 - year yield rose 1.98bp to 3.991%, the 10 - year yield rose 1.59bp to 4.362%, and the 30 - year yield rose 1.43bp to 4.929% [3]