申万期货品种策略日报-天胶-20260325

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View On Tuesday, the natural rubber futures rebounded. The natural rubber is in the seasonal low - production stage. The early opening of the domestic Yunnan production area is expected to increase the pressure of new rubber supply, suppressing rubber prices. However, the domestic production area is still in the early stage of tapping with low output, and the specific output situation needs continuous observation. The Thai production area is still in the low - production season, which generally lasts until May. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, continues to accumulate, and the short - term supply - side elasticity weakens, with relatively firm raw rubber prices. The demand - side all - steel tire start - up is stable. The rubber price is currently facing the new rubber supply pressure, but the strength of synthetic rubber forms support at the bottom. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [2]. 3. Catalog Summaries Futures Market - Price and Volume: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16225, 13310, and 16800 respectively. The prices of RU and NR increased by 80 (0.50%) and 255 (1.95%) respectively, while the price of BR decreased by 670 (-3.84%). The trading volumes of RU, NR, and BR were 299408, 74903, and 597751 respectively. The open interests of RU, NR, and BR were 111774, 57562, and 74665 respectively, with decreases of 5117, 1141, and 14227 respectively [2]. - Spreads: The current spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR are 2915, - 575, and - 3490 respectively, with changes of - 175, 750, and 925 compared to the previous values [2]. - Basis: The current RU basis is - 125, the basis of mixed - RU is - 1005, and the basis of smoked sheet - RU is 3375 [2]. Spot Market - Domestic Spot: The spot prices of whole milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming are 16000, 16100, and 16050 respectively, with increases of 1.03%, 0.63%, and 0.63% respectively. The spot prices of smoked sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai are 19600, with no change. The spot prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan are 15220 and 16150 respectively, with increases of 1.03% and 0.16% respectively [2]. - Downstream Spot: The prices of Thai smoked sheet, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex are 75.45, 58.41, and 76 Thai baht per kilogram respectively. The prices of Thai smoked sheet and Thai latex increased by 2.10% and 0.66% respectively, while the price of Thai cup rubber remained unchanged [2].