Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-03-25 03:26Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Bank [2] Core Insights - Chongqing Bank achieved a revenue of 15.1 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.7 billion yuan, also up by 10.5% [5][7] - The bank's performance is driven by three main factors: widening interest margins, accelerated loan growth, and effective mitigation of credit costs [7] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.14% as of Q4 2025, unchanged from the previous quarter [5][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for Chongqing Bank from 2024 to 2028 are as follows: - Total revenue is projected to grow from 15.1 billion yuan in 2025 to 20.6 billion yuan in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.68% [6] - Net profit is expected to increase from 5.7 billion yuan in 2025 to 7.7 billion yuan in 2028, with a CAGR of about 11.17% [6] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 9.69% in 2025 to 10.81% in 2028 [6] Key Performance Indicators - The bank's net interest income for 2025 was 12.5 billion yuan, a 22.4% increase from the previous year, contributing significantly to revenue growth [14] - The cost-to-income ratio is projected to remain stable, with a slight improvement expected in the coming years [14] - The bank's capital adequacy ratios are as follows: core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio at 8.53% and total capital adequacy ratio at 12.55% as of Q4 2025 [14] Market Position and Strategic Growth - Chongqing Bank is positioned to benefit significantly from major regional development strategies, including the construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle and the new western land-sea corridor [7] - The bank's loan growth was particularly strong in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 21%, and total new loans for the year approaching 90 billion yuan [7][11] - The bank's market share in both deposits and loans has consistently ranked first among peers in the region for two consecutive years [7]