光大期货金融期货日报-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market bottomed out and rebounded throughout the day, with a significant divergence between the yellow and white lines, and the micro - cap stock index soared by over 5%. The expectation of the escalation of the US - Iran conflict has increased, which may have a more profound impact on global energy supply, causing crude oil and its downstream industries to continue to rise sharply. The Fed maintained the interest rate level, and Powell's stance was hawkish. The dot - plot shows only one expected interest rate cut this year, increasing the risk - aversion sentiment in the capital market. In the medium term, if global technology stocks are affected by liquidity, the previously strong technology sectors in the A - share market may experience a valuation decline. It is recommended to allocate large - and small - cap indexes evenly for risk hedging [1] - The treasury bond futures closed with gains in some contracts and slight changes in others. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. The current environment of precise liquidity adjustment, improving fundamentals, and rising inflation is generally negative for the bond market. In the short term, geopolitical conflicts have led to a significant increase in the oil price center, accelerating the expected pace of improvement in domestic inflation data. The market will be mainly in a state of shock adjustment, with long - term interest rates facing more significant pressure, while short - term rates are relatively stable supported by the capital market [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Stock Index Futures: The market showed a significant divergence between large - cap and micro - cap stocks. The US - Iran conflict led to rising oil prices, and the Fed's hawkish stance increased risk - aversion sentiment. Global major stock indexes fell, and emerging markets had larger declines. In the medium term, the technology sector in the A - share market may face valuation adjustments. It is recommended to balance large - and small - cap index allocations [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: The central bank's reverse repurchase operations led to a net withdrawal of funds. The current environment is negative for the bond market. In the short term, due to geopolitical conflicts, the bond market will be in shock adjustment, with long - term interest rates under more pressure and short - term rates relatively stable [1][3] 3.2 Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: On March 24, 2026, compared with March 23, 2026, IH rose by 1.25%, IF by 1.01%, IC by 2.41%, IM by 2.74%, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index by 1.38%, the CSI 300 Index by 1.28%, the CSI 500 Index by 2.11%, and the CSI 1000 Index by 2.59% [4] - Treasury Bond Futures: On March 24, 2026, compared with March 23, 2026, TS fell by 0.02%, TF remained unchanged, T rose by 0.02%, and TL rose by 0.48% [4] 3.3 Market News - The A - share market bottomed out and rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.78% on light trading volume, and the micro - cap stock index rising by over 5%. Green power concept stocks were active, the military industry sector strengthened, and the lithium - battery sector rose. The oil and gas sector performed weakly. Most stocks rose, with nearly 5,200 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closing higher, and the trading volume reaching 2.1 trillion [5] - In terms of sectors, the military industry, power, medical, and sports sectors led the gains, while only the oil and gas sector declined slightly [5] - There were 4,866 rising stocks, 1,000 limit - up stocks, 299 falling stocks, 8 limit - down stocks, and 22 stocks breaking the limit - up, with a limit - break rate of 21% [5] 3.4 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM futures contracts, showing the price trends and basis changes of these contracts over time [7][8][9] - Treasury Bond Futures: The report includes charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures contracts, reflecting the price trends and related spread changes of different - term treasury bond futures [14][15][18][21] - Exchange Rates: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indexes, showing the exchange rate trends of different currencies [23][24][27]