现货成交有所回暖，铜价维持震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Sell put options [7] 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the copper market from multiple aspects including futures, spot, macro - geopolitics, mining, smelting, consumption, and inventory. Although the global equity and commodity markets declined due to potential Fed rate - hike concerns, with the fall of oil prices, the market's pricing of rate - hike may be corrected. And considering the high US debt scale, rate - hike is difficult to implement, so copper prices rebounded last night. Enterprises with hedging needs are advised to buy on dips for hedging, with a hedging volume of about one month [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes On March 24, 2026, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 95,010 yuan/ton and closed at 94,030 yuan/ton, down 2.10% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 93,600 yuan/ton and closed at 93,480 yuan/ton, up 0.68% from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation The Shanghai copper futures contract 2604 opened at 94,720 yuan/ton, fluctuated down to 93,880 yuan/ton and then stabilized, trading in the range of 93,770 - 94,270 yuan/ton and closing at 94,010 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread was between Contango 50 yuan/ton and Backwardation 10 yuan/ton, and the import profit was 70 - 200 yuan/ton. The sales and purchase sentiment in Shanghai electrolytic copper market both declined. The discount of flat - copper and good - copper widened, and the second - stage discount further decreased with improved trading volume. It is expected that the spot discount will remain weak [2]. 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Macro and Geopolitical Aspects On May 20, major domestic banks adjusted RMB deposit interest rates. The current deposit rate was cut by 0.05 percentage points to 0.05%, and the listed rates of various term time deposits were cut by 0.15 - 0.25 percentage points [3]. 3.2.2 Mining End LCL Resources and Rio Tinto reached a joint - venture agreement on the Ono copper - gold project in Papua New Guinea. Rio Tinto can obtain an initial 51% stake by investing at least 8 million Australian dollars in exploration and paying up to 1.5 million Australian dollars in cash in stages, and can increase its stake to 80% through additional investment or resource definition. LCL will receive up to 48 million Australian dollars in exploration funds. Atalaya Mining warned that the geopolitical tension in the Middle East may push up mining costs in 2026, but it maintains its production and cost guidance [4]. 3.2.3 Smelting and Import In February 2026, China's scrap copper imports were 167,937.84 tons, down 27.72% month - on - month and 13.13% year - on - year. Japan and Thailand were the top two import sources [5]. 3.2.4 Consumption Since last week, terminal demand has shown the characteristics of "not weak in the peak season but increasing wait - and - see sentiment". The operating rate of copper cable enterprises increased by 3.93 percentage points to 70.52%, and orders in the power and new - energy vehicle sectors increased well. The enameled wire industry performed well with a significant increase in new orders. However, the wait - and - see sentiment of terminal enterprises has intensified after the copper price fell below the key psychological level. Next week, the operating rate of copper cable enterprises is expected to increase to 72.06%, and that of enameled wire may rise to 89.98% [5][6]. 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts LME warehouse receipts changed by 11,800 tons to 359,275 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 11,405 tons to 262,710 tons. On March 23, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 46.77 million tons, down 5.54 million tons from the previous week [6].